How is the UW D Doing?
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 10:42 AM PDT
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This post was sparked by some comments of KirkD. The issue: How has the Husky D fared in scoring defense compared to everyone else who has played these teams this year?
Eastern Washington is scoring 33 points per game this season, and the Huskies held them to 27 points. This is 6 points fewer than Eastern's season average.
Hawaii is scoring 37 points per game this season; the Huskies held them to 32 points, which is 5 points fewer than Hawaii's season average.
Nebraska scored 51 points on the Huskies, which was 14 points more than its season average of 37.
Cal scored 23 points, which was 8 points fewer than its season average of 31.
Utah scored 14 points, which was 9 points fewer than its season average of 23.
Colorado scored 24 points, which was 5 points more than its season average of 19.
Stanford scored 65 points, which was 16 points more than its season average of 49.
The Huskies defense has, on average, allowed opposing offenses to score 1 more point than their season averages. That would indicate that the Huskies, on average, are doing what just about everyone else is doing with regards to opposing offenses. In other words, they Huskies are giving up just about as many points as the teams (they are playing) are averaging.
There are definitely some outliers here. Specifically, the losses to Stanford and Nebraska. These two games single-handedly negate nearly all of the work the Dawgs have done this season in holding teams below their season average of points scored. Take out the Stanford and Nebraska game and the Dawgs, on average, are holding teams to 5 points lower than their season averages.
Taking away outliers can only get a person so far, especially if there are lots of outliers. In fact, examination of the outliers can prove helpful. So, lets look at them.
(more after the jump)
The Stanford and Nebraska losses had several things in common. In both cases, the Huskies were on the road, playing a highly ranked team. Note that the Huskies had no problems dealing with playing in Utah. However, what stood out to me the most is that both Nebraska and Stanford dominated us with the run game.
Take a look at this table.
| Team | Rush Attempts | RA % | Rush Yards | Yards Per Rush | Pass Attempts | Total Plays |
| Eastern | 17 | 19.8% | 31 | 1.8 | 69 | 86 |
| Hawaii | 22 | 32.8% | 55 | 2.5 | 45 | 67 |
| Neb | 55 | 72.4% | 309 | 5.6 | 21 | 76 |
| Cal | 33 | 43.4% | 108 | 3.3 | 43 | 76 |
| Utah | 23 | 41.1% | 17 | 0.7 | 33 | 56 |
| Colorado | 27 | 41.5% | 62 | 2.3 | 38 | 65 |
| Stanford | 44 | 66.7% | 446 | 10.1 | 22 | 66 |
| Average w/o Stan and Neb | 24 | 35.7% | 54.6 | 2.12 | 45.6 | 70 |
| Average w Stan and Neb | 32 | 45.4% | 146.9 | 3.8 | 38.7 | 70 |
| Average of Stan and Neb | 50 | 69.5% | 377.5 | 7.9 | 21.5 | 71 |
Stanford racked up 446 yards, while Nebraska racked up 309 yards. This makes the biggest difference down the stretch. Many teams like to have a balanced offense, meaning 60% pass and 40% run. In fact, Cal, Utah, and Colorado both came really close to getting exactly that. But, none of those teams were ably to physically dominate the Huskies in the rushing game. Stanford and Nebraska were able to use the run game to demoralize the Husky D. No one else has been able to do this.
Out of the 76 plays Nebraska ran, the Huskers rushed 72% of the time (55 times). They averaged 5.6 yards per carry, which basically guarantees a first down every two plays. Out of the 66 times Stanford ran a play, the Cardinal rushed 67% of the time (44 times). They averaged 10.1 yards per play, which theoretically allowed Stanford a 1st down every stinking time they ran the ball!!! Just to boot, none of the other teams (I did say NONE) averaged more than 3.3 yards per carry. That means none of the other teams were guaranteed a first down in three plays. (Cal would have been guaranteed 9.9 yards, technically, if they ran each play, but teams generally punt on 4th down anyways.)
So, what does this mean? The bend but don't break offense only works if the defense doesn't get physically manhandled in the run game, our defense can hold the opposing offense to scoring few enough points in order to allow the offense to win a shoot-out. The D has shown that even if a team passes a lot, Eastern and Hawaii, it can hang long enough. The reason Cal and Utah had so many pass yards was that each team was trying to come back. Just look at the last drive Cal had. (We won that game because Cal hadn't completely dominated us in the run game, as shown by the goal-line stand.) This applies in the red zone also. The Dawgs are doing better at defending the pass this year in the red zone than anywhere else on the field only when the opposing team can't run all over us. It is what it is.
The bottom line is this, as long as we don't get dominated by a run game, the Huskies will win. We should beat Arizona, but lookout for Oregon.
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thanks for the analysis
It’s always nice to see someone dig deeper into the numbers. I like that you did the work to break down how we did vs. each opponent relative to how other defenses have fared. When you have total breakdowns as we did vs. Stanford (and to a slightly less extent Nebraska), averages can get a bit skewed and cloud our judgment.
sure
I really just wanted to know for myself. I didn’t know what the outcome would be before I did the research.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
The overall picture is of a thin defense, gamely hanging on by it's fingernails.
When the going gets tough, game but thin don’t cut it.
We really should be used to this by now.
As long as our offense continues to be great
I am convinced that as long as the opposing team doesn’t physically dominate us in the run game, our defense will be able to keep the game close, if not put the other team away, and allow the offense to score and pull away the victory.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
yep
There’s no doubt the offense is quite a bit ahead of the defense. And that is allowing the defense as a group more time to develop while limiting the damage in the loss column. But we need to start seeing some real improvement on the defensive side, especially next year. There’s only so long that youth and development remains a valid explanation – Sark has to recruit as effectively on the defensive side as the offensive side, Holt has to implement schemes that our personnel can execute, adjust his play-calling to adapt to the situation and be willing to take more risks by being more aggressive, and our position coaches have to turn the raw talent they get into skilled players (Johnny Nansen, I’m looking especially hard at you).
agreed
next year, the youth excuse will need to cease to exist. If it continues, the coaches are feeding fans, and everyone else, a Costco-sized package of bologna.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
it won't be completely invalid...
…but it will be significantly reduced as a reasonable excuse.
We should be featuring the following players with playing experience:
DE: Jamora, Shirley, Hudson, Crichton
DT: Tokolahi, Shelton, Lagafuaina, Potoa’e
LB: Timu, Fuimaono, Kearse, Gilliland, Tutogi
CB: Trufant, Ducre, Gobern, Long
S: Parker, Glenn, Fellner, Shamburger, Walker
We’ll miss Ta’amu, Dennison (and to a lesser extent Thompson & Richardson), but the gain in experience of the returning guys ought to offset those losses.
Plus we should see the emergence of a few young guys that might be able to crack the two-deeps: Sample, Tupou, Lawyer, Zeger, Finau, Waller & Peters. And there may be a few impact true frosh as well.
That group listed above is still moderately young – only Fellner, Glenn, Gobern, Long, Tokolahi & Trufant will be Seniors, and of those Tokolahi, Trufant are the only certain starters.
but that won't be different
for the most part between other teams in the pac 12
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
true
At that point, you have to really drill down into just how talented you think our guys are. I’ll still be a bit concerned about the edges of the front 7, and I’m not sure if we’ve got the talent we really need at CB outside of Trufant. DT seems reasonably stout, assuming Tokolahi & Shelton stay healthy and Lagafuaina continues to re-shape his body and improve his conditioning, and safety appears to be the deepest, most talented group. We really need someone to step up at MIK (hopefully Tutogi).
one of the biggest jobs for Cort this year
is actually teaching and mentoring Tutogi so he can hit the ground running (apart from being the QB of the defense, and still having to play football).
And don’t forget about Travis Feeney. The coaches have been really impressed with him.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the hard work.
Few thoughts:
Obviously I’m not impressed with the EWU numbers, given the rest of their opponents are FCS schools.
Another “intangible” (or maybe it’s just harder to calculate), is the offense is much improved this year. The previous two years the defense was on the field more and had less help from the offense. I’m going to have to do some research on # of plays per game, average yards per play, and time of possession, then compare this season to the previous two years. My bet is that even though the offense is on the field more and defense is on the field less, they are still giving up more yards and points.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
just so you know
this wasn’t intended to be a rip on any particular DC, or even a comparison for previous years. I was just trying to figure out what happened against Nebraska and Stanford, which definitely pushed our points allowed up slightly higher than our opponents’ total scoring offense average. The key to breaking our D is to dominate in the run. This requires an ability to break 5 yards per rush. Our defense has been much better in the red zone covering the pass than an effective rushing attack.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Good reply
I share your feeling and thoughts about the Holt and the D
by lorenzothedog on Oct 28, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Don't Forget This....
This early in the season all of our opponents have faced many (weaker) non-conference foes, and comparing our numbers to such opposition tilts the table. A much more accurate opportunity to evaluate our defense will come at the end of the season, factoring only what the Dawgs have done against PAC-12 conpetition.
of course
And that is something I plan to do at the end of the season.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Just so you know
The Dawgs are currently allowing current Pac-12 foes to score 1 more point then what those foes are averaging per game.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Accounting for the Sankey fumble in the Nebraska game cuts down on how bad that game looks.
You can’t put those 7 points on the defense.
Not necessarily
The obvious quest from Sankey’s fumble would be whether Nebraska wouldn’t have scored those seven points if given a longer field. The way the run game was going for Nebraska, there is a really good chance that Sankey didn’t need to fumble. Especially since the entire Husky team, coaches included, were completely irate over the referees.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 27, 2011 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I think UW is where UO was at in 2008
Good offense, shaky D. If the Offense is on, usually able to win a shootout but if the O is sluggish (Boise State, Rose Bowl), then we’re pretty much screwed.
I'll mention that the examples I gave was the 2009 season but you get the point.
And the point is that I think UW will be back to the top 2 to 3 teams in the Pac 12 within 2 or 3 years.
Excellent - especially the handling of "outriders"
This analysis that you did is more directly to the point and probably less biased than any other I’ve read. Since there are lies, damn lies and statistics – an analysis usually proves its own bias. When up against superior (larger, more experienced, smarter, better coached?) players on the road the Huskies lose by a big margin. So the defense looks relatively worse against these teams and conversely, relatively better against not-so-good teams.
The point being: this is neither a good nor bad defense, just mediocre. However, we are currently 5 – 2, so I would like to see this same analysis done again each week, and then again at the end with the full season’s results (including the bowl game).
Glad you liked it
I’ll see what I can do …
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 28, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Great analysis - however
you stated that UW wins as long “we don’t get dominated by a run game”. I do not think it is that simple IMHO you must factor in 1. turnovers – we must win turnover battle 2. Injuries – if Price goes down no chance to win – if Polk goes down not sure if we can overcome – UT QB goes down game changer 3. special teams – Folk hitting long FGs – not giving up long KO returns 4. WR holding on to ball on critical 3rd or 4th down
Do you really honestly expect me to put all that into the post?
If you read what I wrote, I said that if a team can average more than 5 yards per carry against us, they will dominate us in the run game, and our D won’t be able to stop them.
The main point here was just to show how the UW D is doing, with regards to scoring defense, compared to the teams it has played so far, and also to show that, at least this year … and thus far, our defense can play the bend but don’t break defense successfully if the other team cannot effective establish the run. The big thing is in the red zone. Other teams have been getting to the red zone by passing, but not being able to capitalize as much as the only two teams that have completely broken our defense. Being a successful rushing team, especially in the red zone, has bee the key to demoralizing our defense. The only 2 teams to do that thus far in the season are Stanford and Nebraska. In both those cases, because of the established run game by both teams, our defense bent, and then broke in the red zone.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 28, 2011 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
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