Looking ahead to Arizona
by John Berkowitz on Oct 25, 2011 9:04 AM PDT
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The Huskies celebrate homecoming this year by hosting the 2-5 Arizona Wildcats in a game that will be nationally televised by FSN. It is a big game for Washington. Win this one (and they should) they qualify for a second consecutive bowl game in year three of the Sark regime.
It is going to be one of those blackout night games that features the Huskies playing in all black uniforms. The players really did dig the all blacks. They say (and I am not making this up) that the black uniforms make them feel faster, sleeker, and stronger. So I guess the timing is the perfect time to take them out of the closet.
Beating Arizona is not looking as easy as it did a couple of weeks ago. They fired coach Mike Stoops before a bye week and then they stormed out and destroyed UCLA 48-12 last Thursday on national TV. Not exactly the scenario I expected since I gave the Wildcats up for dead. As it turns out UCLA was much deader than Arizona.
So we have to assume going forward that the Cats are playing to win and they should be a formidable opponent despite the record on Saturday night. Nick Foles is an excellent quarterback who has experience carving up the Washington defense.
Arizona isn't afraid of Washington. They know they can beat Washington. They thumped the Huskies 44-10 in Tucson last season in a game that was over at halftime. Matt Scott was 18-22 for 232 yards and two touchdowns. The Cats also picked up a whopping 239 yards on the ground!
The big difference for Arizona this year is that they sport a defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. The Cat's give up 33.9 points per game in comparison the the Huskies 33.7. They give up an average of 461 yards in comparison to the Huskies 431.
Arizona is also handicapped going into this game by the suspensions of four defensive backs for brawling on the field with UCLA last week. Keith Price should like what he see's when he looks down field. Nick folk always does when playing UW so this could turn into a track meet.
What makes Arizona dangerous is that there offense still can put a lot of points on the scoreboards. They are third in the conference in total offense while averaging 471 per game. 373 of those yards per game have come through the air so a key to victory is definitely putting pressure on Nick Foles.
Washington is a much more balanced team than Arizona. This is the type of game where you need to get a ahead a couple of scores and feed the ball to Chris Polk. Burn up the clock while dominating the time of possession which keeps Nick Foles and his high flying offense on the bench.
The Huskies are pretty good at bouncing back after a tough defeat. The players and coaches are just as upset about last week as the fan base currently is. They know they can learn from the experience and do better this week.
Perfection may not be within their grasp this season but victories on most weekend are which is a huge improvement for a program that was 0-12 three seasons ago.
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Typo ...
Nick Foles was 18-122 for 232 yards
Holding Foles to 18-122 would be pretty cool though. I’d imagine Foles’ arm would be sore, for like a year!
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
Did I grab stats from the wrong season?
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Oct 25, 2011 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok...fixed....!
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Oct 25, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
This feels like a must-win for the Dawgs
Show ability to bounce back, and avoid the risk of a 4 game skid with Oregon and USC coming up. We should be able to light it up on the Offensive side, so here’s a chance for the Defense (players AND coaches) to quiet the critics – at least a bit.
It may be extreme to say, but I think a loss in this game could be devastating, given the circumstances.
A loss here would be crushing...
This needs to be a big win…you don’t want to play Oregon coming off a home loss.
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Oct 25, 2011 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree
A loss to AZ would be brutal to the team (and the fans). This is where the comment of not letting Stanford beat us twice comes into play. Its time for the D to come out and make some plays. Something they certainly didn’t last week.
Benno
But
before the implosion in the second quarter, the D did hold Stanford’s second possession to a field goal.
10-0 and 10-7 looks a lot more manageable (at least it did at the time) than 14-0, or 14-7.
But yeah, if the defense can keep from imploding then I’m not worried at all.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 25, 2011 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
No way
No chance the huskies can’t beat Arizona when they’re missing 4 guys in the secondary. Arizona found a run game last week but they don’t have a chris polk on their roster.
That said, lets hope the defense can stop a team that will pile up yards like EWU and Hawaii with a plethora of short timing routes.
Read an article on AZ Desert Swarm
They said Nick Foles was calling the plays against UCLA. He definitely has some confidence running that offense. This could pose a problem for the Husky D.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
They will come in confident and loose. Well, at least the Offense will.
They’ve got nothing to lose.
While their O-Line is a bit young, they’ve got a decent run game, and a bruising FB. After seeing what Stanford did to us, there’s little doubt they expect to easily move the ball, with power running, and a good mix of passing. Foles makes some mistakes, but overall he’s a good, solid play-maker. Even though they lost to USC, they torched that D.
It’s easy to predict a shoot-out here, but that’s what this will be. Our D will win or lose this game for us.
they’ve got a decent run game, and a bruising FB.
Are you talking about Arizona? They’ve got the 111th ranked rushing offense in the country. Less than 100 yards/game, even with the big game against UCLA. And the Bruins have one of the worst rushing defenses in the country (90th).
Arizona has the most pass attempts in the conference by far. They don’t really make much of an attempt to run the ball. Saturday might’ve been the wake-up call they needed to get the running game untracked, but I’d bet they’ll still throw the ball 60% of the time or more.
That's fair
But their run game has improved.
I watched both the UCLA game and the USC game, and when they got it going, they looked good moving the ball on the ground.
I gave Foles his due, and no doubt they rely on the pass, but I think they’ll come in looking to pound it against us, and if our run D doesn’t improve to handle 40% of the plays, we’re going to struggle.
Most of what they got against USC came when the Trojans had a big lead...
…and were pretty much just sitting back waiting for the clock to run out.
The Wildcats had a 42-7 lead at half time. They built that lead in the first half with more than 60% of their called plays being passes (if you include Foles’ scrambles and sacks). The Bruins didn’t bother showing up for the second half, and the Wildcats just pounded it down their throats.
I’ll certainly concede they’ve been better, but outside of the UCLA game, they’re pretty anemic. As that article says, their total against UCLA was more than double their previous high of 129 yards. The inverted wishbone is a good look, but it’s based on misdirection more than power. Point being, those two games look more like outlier situations than the norm for Arizona’s run game.
I certainly hope they look to run on Saturday. I’d much rather face a Wildcat team that tries to establish a running game on the road rather than Foles simply sitting back there and choosing which receiver is going to pick up 8 yards.
Cats can't run
Arizona can’t run the ball against us. I make that a guarantee. If they run more than pass we win big. I’m worried about them carving us up through the air. Stanford is bigger, stronger, and faster than we are. They showed it. The Cats are not.
by datboyeddiep on Oct 25, 2011 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Fun Fact!
The entire Arizona team has 685 yards rushing on the season. Polk has 872!
Bad as our D is, they can stop the run against any team who’s O-line can’t out muscle them, and Arizona is one of those teams.
On the other side, their D is even worst than ours. This will be a blow-out home win to have us feeling good heading into that Oregon game.
by Skeptical Dawg on Oct 25, 2011 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
We can win 666-0 and I still won't feel about facing the Ducks.
Dread, apprehension, anxiety…but no, ‘good’ isn’t the term I would use. They are going to hang 60 on us. And, then after that butt raping I’m going to have to endure the continued prattle that my expectations are too high, that its just unreasonable of me to expect my team to keep the other teams score closer to 0 than it to 100. We just need to wait until the coach has every last roster spot filled with 5th year seniors before expecting any sort of non embarassing performance.
The lowered expectations around here are worse than anything done to the program by those in charge.
You all realize it’s not your fault, he shouldn’t be hitting you, right? He doesn’t love you, you deserve better.
I don't think there's a person who reads this blog ...
and who’s a Husky fan, who didn’t have high expectations this year for the defense. To say otherwise would be silly. Also, saying:
We just need to wait until the coach has every last roster spot filled with 5th year seniors before expecting any sort of non embarassing performance.is silly too.
I understand your frustration, along with everyone else’s, but being realistic, and having high expectations aren’t mutually exclusive.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 26, 2011 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Would you care to make a bet??
Arizona can’t run the ball against us. I make that a guarantee
I have ZERO confidence that our defense can stop anything. I’m sure Holt will have us playing a very soft zone coverage, extremely focused on not giving up the long pass play, which will give Arizona room to run the ball when they want to. The only question is will they want to run the ball on us.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
Theoretically speaking . . .
but we will be soooo focused on the pass, they will have room to run.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
because of last week's game against UCLA
the coached will be forced to guard against the run.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 26, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
So we should expect to get shredded through the air?
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
Probably
but no one thought we wouldn’t get shredded through the air, even with a stepped up “pass defense.”
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 26, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
that's not the point though
In a zone coverage scheme, the DB’s and LB’s that are in coverage spend the first few seconds of the snap facing the offense and focused on an area – this provides more time and a wider view to make the determination of what kind of play they are defending. They should be able to more quickly diagnose if it’s a running play and converge on the ball-carrier.
With man coverage, the DB’s are focused on their man, and depending on how tight they are to the LOS, they may have their back turned to the offense right off the bat. This makes it harder for them to diagnose if the play is a run or pass. And by the time they figure that out, they may already have the receiver attempting to block them.
That is the theory . . .
They haven’t been playing “fast” lately, I expect them to be mentally geared to stopping the pass, causing them to be slower to recognize the run mentally, which will cause them to be slower to get to the run. It could be as simple as taking a step or two backwards before recognizing run and pursuing the run.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
That shouldn't be as big a factor in this game though
as our D line is supposedly better matched to AZ than to Stanford.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 26, 2011 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you on which poison to pick in defending the run vs. pass
As long as our run D shows up, at least. My concern is that our opponents have, with a few exceptions, been successful against us with either avenue they chose to emphasize.
AZ is certainly in a different league than NU and Stanford when it comes to the run game, but I’m hazarding a prediction that they will in fact attempt to establish a ground attack, with more balanced passing against us. That’s based on last week’s performance of both teams. Clearly UCLA is not a good D, but in the first half AZ still put up about 174 yards (including sacks) on the ground and scored 3 rushing TD’s. I think your 60% pass/40% run split looks spot on – I’m just concerned about how successful we are against the 40%.
All of which I guess gets me back to the original point that our D will win or lose the game for us. I know that’s not really going out on a limb, other than to say I think they need to be able to handle and contain something more than a pass-happy opponent.
Exactly
My concern is that our opponents have, with a few exceptions, been successful against us with either avenue they chose to emphasize.
That alone is a big negative on Holt’s resume.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
SAY WHAT?????
It’s 100% true. EWU, Hawaii, and Cal put up 300+ yards of passing, Nebraska and Stanford put up 300+ yards of rushing.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
…been successful against us with either avenue they chose to emphasize
They’ve been succesful with what they do, not anything they choose to do. Look what Eastern, Cal, Hawaii, and Utah did on the ground. Nothing.
Maybe that’s what NY85 meant, and I’m misinterpreting his comment.
Yes, correct distinction of my point. It wasn't worded well on my part.
A better way to have said it would be teams are successful against us with either what they chose to emphasize (mostly Stanford), or had to emphasize (EWU, Hawaii, NU), with slight exceptions being Colorado, and to some extent Cal and Utah.
The bottom line is that our defense appears vulnerable to an oppnent’s offensive strength or emphasis, regardless of whether its run or pass.
Being a bit picky aren't we??
They’ve been succesful with what they do, not anything they choose to do.
99.99999% of the time, that is the exact same thing. Nebraska and Stanford choose to run the ball, Hawaii and EWU choose to throw the ball. Yes it’s “what they do”, but they made a choice to run that style offense.
The point remains the same: We can’t stop a passing team and we can’t stop a running team.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
It's just not fair to expect Holt to compete w/o 5 stars across the 2 deeps.
Don’t believe me, just ask him, he’ll gladly tell you as much.
The Holt debate is boring me...
UW Dawg Pound - SBN Seattle
by John Berkowitz on Oct 25, 2011 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
even if that happens
nobody will say anything new or different about whether or not to keep Holt.
I think continuing this debate is insanity.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 26, 2011 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
We will win this game
Big statement game here. No doubt we fell out of the top 25 as we should have. It’s time to come back. We need to light up this Arizona team.
If they need the black uniforms to get tough, wear them! Then go out there and beat the living shhhh out of the Cats!
I think it’s big for us to get bowl eligible before playing Oregon. It’s a huge step from where we were a few seasons ago, even from last season.
But not likely
If a ranking is going to come for us this year, it will be after we run the table following a close game with Oregon; though if we beat Oregon we will be ranked.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 25, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
it's possible
A 6-2 team from a BCS conference stands a decent chance of being ranked next week. Washington didn’t fall too far out of the rankings, as they are currently 29th in the AP and 31st in the USA Today.
That said, I don’t really care about rankings at this point. Let’s get Bowl-eligible and see about finishing the regular season with at least 8 wins – that would constitute a pretty good season, all things considered. I think many of us were figuring closer to .500 before the season started. Some things have been better than expected (Price), some things worse (defense).
agreed
but still not likely. The Dawgs could be ranked if they whomp the Wildcats this weekend, but have a much higher chance if they are 8-4 or 9-3 from a BCS conference.
Formerly the fan known as Denvdawg.
"You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
by Randall Floyd on Oct 25, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
How likely it is depends . . . .
on how we win. If the score is 42-7, we might be ranked, if the score is 49-45 there is almost no chance we will be ranked.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
I was thinking 8 as a ceiling
This team could still win 9. Its been a very good season so far. I dont expect that to change on Saturday night.
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