Huskies Fall to Cougs, 87-80 in Ugly Effort
by THolt on Jan 31, 2011 3:35 PM PST
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PrintThis being the first recap I've done for the site, I suppose I should count my blessings that this is such an easy game to analyze. As I said in the preview, I thought Matthew Bryan-Amaning's play would be the key to the game, given some of the other, more obvious match ups. He's the Huskies' second scoring option, and in 33 minutes of action last night, he scored just six points on 12.5% shooting. Borrowing a line from a friend of mine, as he said after the game: "Look up the definition of 'ugly' in a dictionary, and it'll be a big, fat UW logo." Predictably, Klay Thompson went off, and I think was in some ways able to use that 40 pound advantage he has on Justin Holiday much of the evening.
I think this is the first game in which we've really, truly missed the much-improved Abdul Gaddy, Strapping our number one scorer with point guard and ball distribution duties really hurt Isaiah's game, as he was held scoreless from the field until the 6:09 mark of the second half. Read that again. Ouch. Looking more at the "ugly" column of the game, the Huskies turned the ball over an incredible 24 times, just below twice their per game average. Additionally, given the purple and gold's 46 (15 on the offensive end) to 32 rebounding advantage, we clearly didn't take advantage of second chances. I'm running out of clever nicknames for the University of Washington, so let's just move on, shall we?
After the jump, I'll focus on MBA's terrible night, and try to decipher exactly why the Dawgs were ineffective in exploiting the weaknesses in Ken Bone's 2-3 zone. Also, I'll try and figure out why a WSU team averaging only 75.8 ppg were able to hang 87 on us on Friel Court, as well as figure out how they were able to force those season-high 24 UW turnovers.
In re-watching the game, one of the first things I noticed about the zone was just how quickly the Cougs collapsed on MBA in that soft spot just in front of the blocks. There are a few ways to go about attacking the 2-3, all of which depend upon the defense's need to guard the ball, not the man. One is the soft spot I just mentioned, where you can take higher percentage shots. The second is dribble penetration. Either get to the hoop--score or draw the foul--or cause that collapse I mentioned and open up one of your jump shooters. The third would be ball perimeter ball movement, again with the idea of getting one of your shooters open. The latter two force you to take lower percentage shots, and though we shot a respectable 35.5% from three-land, we jacked up 31 shots. That's way too many for an Isaiah Thomas-led squad against the zone. I suppose there's a fourth manner of attacking the zone by going over the top with drop steps and lobs, but WSU played their back three fairly deep for a solid portion of the evening.
That last sentence is troubling. MBA was able to get behind the zone, but he spent way too much of the evening running the high ball screen, and frankly looked a little lackadaisical the whole game. He just wasn't banging or carving out space underneath, and he wasn't establishing himself in that zone-created soft spot where he could work with his back to the basket.
Out of UW's 74 offensive possessions, I counted only 16 of which you could say MBA was really establishing himself, either deep underneath or in the middle of the paint. As a team, the Huskies scored only 14 points in the paint all evening, all on layups. The lack of dunks is telling given this squads length and athleticism. All this despite the rebounding advantage I mentioned. Of anyone, I thought Darnell Gant looked the strongest underneath, although he only finished with nine points and eight rebounds. Aziz N'Dyiae, who I mentioned as important to stopping Thompson in the preview, simply looked tired and a little outmatched in the few minutes he played.
A couple other notes on the Coug defense: the zone didn't play nearly the role one may think in the turnover situation, as 15 of the 24 were simple sloppiness on our part: throwing the ball out of bounds, stupid strips and telegraphed passes. Also, we should keep in mind that the WSU defense is one of the best in the country, with a 37.4% field goal percentage-against.
But where did their offense come from? Klay Thompson was back to his usual self, showing both range and creativity off the dribble. The Cougars scored 30 points in the paint, and I counted 19 of them coming off short, underneath passes, indicating yet another problem with our bigs last night, a lack of rotation.
But I think the ultimate problem was our inability to capitalize on their foul trouble. The Cougars are not particularly deep offensively, with only three guys coming in averaging over ten points. Faisal Aden really stepped it up last night, dumping in 15 and seemingly always there with a counterpunch, stifling any potential runs we may have made to win. Say what you will about +/-, but Brock Motum led both teams at +10, and has a really awesomely wide FT stance, to boot. God, does he look awkward out there,
According to Statsheet, the game wasn't "statistically over" until less than a minute showed on the clock. According to the same resource's gameflow chart, at no point in the second half were the Huskies able to get a stop then score after having put the game within two scores. By my completely arbitrary and in-no-way empirical impressions, we've been a second half team all year. We just didn't bring it this time.
Next up for the Huskies, at the Beavers, Thursday, 6 PM.
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Same friend with the "ugly" quote points out that teams only having three guys averaging double digits is fairly normal.
In fact, the Huskies only have three themselves. So, I gotta find some other way of statistically justifying the notion that the bench stepped up for WSU.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
I take it back...
Their bench contribute one fewer point than did ours. I have no idea what that means.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
*Contributed.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
That is contributing.
Remember, UW is a very deep team. So for WSU bench scoring to be even with UW, it means they did win that battle— particularly when their starters outscored ours.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 31, 2011 6:14 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure if UW so deep anymore with Gaddy and Wilcox out – Overton not sure if he is fully healthy plus alleged rape hanging over someone’s head.
by lorenzothedog on Jan 31, 2011 6:22 PM PST up reply actions
I was looking for a better way to indicate that we completely screwed up when half their starting line up was benched.
I need to keep better track of starters vs. bench for the next one. Good news: we’re a lot, a lot more talented than any team in this conference.
A question, cause I know you’re a veteran both here and at FG and LL; are these things too stat heavy right now? I’m still trying to find a Jeff-like voice to keep things entertaining. I am really, really into it though, and I want to become a regular contributor. Any sort of advice or critique would be helpful.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
Well, I'm also a former English teacher...
my biggest advice to anyone when writing:
A) organize your ideas before you write (i.e. create an outline first— even a basic one, and stick to it.)
B) after you get done, do a quick edit for grammar and syntax
C) after you’ve done that, do another re-write, this time for style/humor/reader enjoyment.
D) do another edit for grammar and syntax.
My typical rule for grammar and syntax is this— don’t worry about the rules of grammar. Does it sound right, yes or no? If no, rewrite. That’s the extent.
Finally, and this is actually the biggest thing and comes before A—
Find your voice as a writer. It may be the same as your speech, it may not. But find it. If your voice is of a statistical bent, so be it. If it is more philosophical, so be it.
The neat thing about football and basketball— they aren’t as static as baseball, so you can’t live and die with stats to the degree you can in baseball.
When I coached Hoops (high school level) I had some rules that I wanted statistically— from the top of my head…
Shoot 70% from the line
50% from the field
Other team shoots less than 42% from the field
Make more free throws than the other team shoots
Out rebound the other team.
Score first and score last every quarter.
Have less than 10 turnovers
Force more than 18 turnovers
Get at least 10 transition points
Give up no transition points
Our team should have at least 5 but no more than 9 fouls per half
Get into double bonus every half.
(Obviously some of those could be adjusted for the college level)
Winning those statistical areas will make you a winner regardless of your tempo, and that’s about as far as I would go into statistics— those areas. More than that makes a reader’s head swim, in my opinion. (Unless it IS a focus piece on some statical arena.)
One more thing— on a post of this length, you may want to do titles and subtitles… for example:
GAME SUMMARY
OFFENSE
The good
(blah blah)
The bad
(yadda yadda)
The ugly
(MBA, IT)
DEFENSE
What worked
What didn’t
GAME FLOW
Observations (like the crowd and overton factor)
Tempo
The Pendulum Swings (big moments that made a difference)
FINAL SUMMARY
Now— that doesn’t mean you have to use this format or anything— but remember to organize ahead of time and fill in. Plus, that will make the work quicker in the long run as you already have the skeleton you fill in every week, instead of reinventing the wheel.
Also, the readers will get to know your subcategories and like (or dislike) them. (Think Peter King— if I read him at all, I skip the Fine Fifteen and MVP Watch, go down to the quotes, read the entire award section (but skip a paragraph if I already know what I know about the player in the heading), I’ll glance at the “stat of the week” and maybe read… probably skip the “factoid that may only interest me” as most the time it doesn’t interest whiskey,
skip the next couple things… always skip coffee and travel…. you get my drift.
But as much as he drives me nuts, I keep coming back. I think because there is some good stuff once you move past the drivel… and also because his organization allows you to skip the sections you don’t want to read.
So yeah… there’s your english/basketball/sports writing lesson of the day. Hope it didn’t come off as “know-it-all”, I’m only trying to help make your life… and your written word… better.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 31, 2011 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
Uhm...
I forgot to “bold” the Titles/subtitles… you can do that.
Also, you may want to write it all in word and then transfer it over… depends if you have formatting issues or not. I’ve done that before and sometimes not.
Oh, one more thing— make sure before you hit “post” or “submit” or whatever, that you highlight and copy the entire thing so if the page gets lost or anything and you didn’t do it in word first, that you have it to re-paste. Happened to me on a fanpost once, i was NOT happy.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 31, 2011 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
I really appreciate it, actually.
I feel like I have a strong grasp of prose, but my organization is all over the place, as is my voice. The length argument particularly appealed to me. And I’ve already saved the specific statistical criteria you mentioned. I’ve never played organized ball, and I’m new to analysis on this level.
Thanks, man.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
You're welcome.
If you are new to analysis, be very careful with stats, they can lie more in hoops than baseball.
You may have more turnovers because you push the ball and create a frenetic pace.. but you keep the other team out of its tempo/flow, so it’s fine. Coined “Organized Chaos” ala Billy Donovan at Florida (and Romar coaches a similar style.)
You might be a small trapping team, so you give up a lot of offensive boards… but if you get a turnover for every board you give up, and the other team doesn’t absolutely score on those rebounds, then no great loss.
So on, so forth.
A great focus should be tempo and flow— you can see it ebb and flow in a hoops game. Soccer is similar in that regard, though I just don’t appreciate the game like I should. And you don’t need to be a specialist to know that… it’s a “vibe” about the game. Once you really understand it, you can actually see the flow as it is happening, even a layman.
Okay, that’s enough for tonight… I’m about to ramble. Tired.
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Feb 1, 2011 12:07 AM PST up reply actions
Turnovers was one of the stats I was very careful to analyze in real time.
I agree completely. Going to start looking at tempo stats more often, particularly given the fact that it’s college ball.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
As an English teacher myself
I heartily endorse everything Whiskey said. The only thing I would add is this: Write a lot. Like everyday. Maybe even multiple times a day. It’s the only way to discover your voice.
My first blog I tried to be like Bill Simmons. I am not like Bill Simmons. I’m sort of funny in person, but it doesn’t even remotely translate to my writing. Figure out what you’re good at and run with it.
Last thing: Really enjoyed this post. Nice, balanced look at what happened. You, sir, have potential. Stick with it.
Sorry, one last thought
I write about stats a lot. The key is, whatever stats you use, try and stay away from jargon as much as possible (unless the community is totally used to it, as LL is) and put it in words people can easily understand.
OK, now I’m done.
Nice analysis – just an U G L Y game. You didn’t mention the officiating I thought had some impact on game – also the crowd may have rattled the dogs. Especially the chant concerning the alleged rape.
I got into it with some Cougars regarding the fans and such on the game thread.
Wanted to leave the rape thing out of it. The officiating was fairly awful. I’m pretty sure every charge, aside from maybe one I can’t single out at the moment, was actually a blocking foul. I maybe should have added that Thompson’s weight advantage led to some of those ticky tack blocking fouls on those slashes from the wings.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
The "No Means No" sign went too far, but hey, our student sections have done some pretty lame stuff, too.
There was a “Welcome to Nowhere” sign that I got a kick out of.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
Wow, that's dedication
You must have re-watched each play several times, tough to do in a loss. Impressive.
Great breakdown of offensive and defensive sets. Our zone was active and energetic and may have had something to do with MBA having a poor game. It’s frustrating for us at times because we don’t always bring that energy. I’m not sure we’ll see it in the return game at Hec Ed, but it makes our team so much better when we bring it.
I think Gaddy’s influence would have been less missed if Overton had played like he usually does. I’m not sure how much the chants had to do with it. I’ll say that while other student sections would do and have done similar, I don’t agree with it. Anyways, he was clearly out of it, and that basically left Thomas to do all the ball handling. I was impressed by Suggs and Ross, two players I hadn’t seen much of. Holiday took 12 shots to score 10 points (plus 6 on FTs) and the three bigs combined for 17 points, 3 assists, 5 turnovers, and 9 fouls. Their biggest contribution was getting Casto in foul trouble and cleaning up the boards.
I know people have pointed to the turnovers as the key to the game, and to some extent that is certainly true. I thought the underrated stat was how well our bigs did against yours, which was a matchup I was sure we’d lose heading into the game. I think the bigs for the two teams about played even, which for us was a win.
By the way, I know you mentioned you aren’t sure how stat-driven to go, but kenpom.com is an excellent site that can explain some things with a little more advanced statistics than things like ppg. For example, you can check the WSU page and see that this was actually a below-average offensive performance from the Cougs. We scored 87 points in 83 possessions, an average of 1.05 ppp. For the season we average 1.09, so we would have been expected to score 90 to 91 points in 83 possessions. Now, of course this is tempered by the competition, because clearly UW is no average team. So relatively we played good offense and great defense. Anyways, it’s a little clearer way of looking at it than just saying we scored more than average because it takes tempo into account.
"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez
I like usage percentage and anything value/total based.
Also, I appreciate the kind words. I’m not sure if I like points per possession, simply because it doesn’t account for defense, as I understand it.
WSU is a March Madness team. You guys beat who you’re supposed to beat and I think you’re in, even if we win at Hec. I’m glad we agree on the crowd behavior; hell, I go to UW and I’ve participated in it. It makes me a hypocrite to some extent.
I’d have to look at it once more, but I’m pretty sure we played far below our average tempo based on Tppp and Pppg vs U%. I’m also drunk and that could possibly mean nothing. Nevertheless, I’m definitely going to take your comments into account going forward. Much appreciated.
Also, I hate you and with you a painful, lonely death, because, well, you’re a Coug.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
*wish
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
I cheerfully acknowledge your gratitude and scorn!
According to kenpom that was your highest paced game since the opener against McNeese State. I’m not sure how that changes with usage and such.
As for ppp, the stat on its own doesn’t account for defense. Kenpom does an adjusted efficiency, which is based on ppp and compensated for the quality of the opponent. I’m not sure how to do that for a one-game scenario, as he calculates it over the season.
"I mean I was like, okay, there you go, you wanna hit me? There you go, one pitch for you. You don't get it? You have no chance." ~ Felix Hernandez
I think there potential for this to be a "turning point" game for WSU.
WSU now knows they can compete at home— but also, Klay blew up. Could be the thing that sets him on a Stephen Curry media darling track for the tourney… if the wins start to really begin coming.
UW gets to have a loss that isn’t a bad loss but it one from which to reflect from. Far more valuable than a sneak-it-out victory at this point, and let’s them know how important the Oregon tour is going to be next week. (And, what to expect from Eugene, they will be just as bad if not worse on Venoy.)
"Life does not cease to be funny when people die, anymore than it ceases to be serious when people laugh." - George Bernard Shaw
by Tyler Jorgensen on Jan 31, 2011 9:54 PM PST reply actions
Don't want to think about the Ducks crowd right now...
Ugh. Why is there more animosity between UO and UW than WSU and the same?
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
Well the upside is even if the crowd is just as hostile as Wazzu
at least their team isn’t very good.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
You are my favorite Coug.
I still hate you. Sorry. Here is where I would insert a “smiley” were I so inclined to use emoticons.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
I have no idea if I should be happy or disgusted about that.
"If you want your dreams to come true, don't sleep in."
Amy Poehler on Conan, regarding domestic disputes: "I'm doing fine; I'm on the internet, bitch!"
I have perhaps misplaced my efforts.Luckily I still have law school, high ticket sales, crack dealing and porn as alternates.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
My two cents
MBA was disappointing. But he got some open shots. They just didnt seem to fall. Then I believe he started forcing things. I think the whole team did. I cant say too many times how much I believe this team misses Gaddy. IT has played admiral at the point. Great at some in games (see Arizona game). But that is because he is a great basketball player. He is not a great point guard, unless someone else picks up the scoring. Noone really did in this game. Therefore, he forced to do too much. He cant be the leading scorer and the point guard. Not in a game where MBA is absent. With Gaddy being a true point guard, he can have a calming influence on the game as well as not making IT bring the ball up everytime.
Wilcox hurt and Overton in foul trouble hurt our depth. Overton more so as he is the backup point guard. I do not believe the chants or signs affected his play. Venoy strikes me as the kind of player that thrives in that situation. Foul trouble took him away from making any contribution.
I thought Suggs had his best game as a husky. I say this before looking at any of his stats. He played D on Thompson very well when Holiday was out and hit some open shots when asked. I didnt count but i am pretty sure Thompson was much better against Holiday than Suggs.
WSU played better passing offense They were taking open shots all night.
When IT got penetration the offense worked much better. This was evident when we took the lead in the first half helped by back to back 3’s from IT dishes. At the time I thought this is where we would take over the game. Bone called TO and things changed. Bone seemed to do an excellent coaching job.
UDUB was in man to man most of the night. When Thompson got in foul trouble and left they switched to a zone and Moore quickly made them pay by hitting a 3.
I again thought Washington would take over the game when WSU got in foul trouble but the reverse happened. I really cant explain it. Maybe that was the home court.
I thought Aden was the best player in the game. He made key rebounds, shots, steals, and hustle plays.
Ross needs to become more involved in the game early. He seems to be the kind of guy that needs to get in a rhythm. I think he could take some scoring pressure off of IT. I loved when the announcer said he was like silk. Totally see the comparison.
Great Job Tholt
Aden was the "pendulum player."
For everyone reading, please note that this a cooperative effort between CODawg and myself. This time, his e-mail got by me for whatever reason, but he’s making every effort I am, and possibly more.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
Also, I've been turning the foul trouble stretch over and over in my head.
Bench points don’t exactly explain how we failed to capitalize on it. Maybe there’s some percentage or I could’ve used the play-by-play or maybe some sort of collective +/- would explain it. I’m fairly sure I’d have to manually calculate the last of those, which would be difficult, but worth it.
Teams (for foreign blogs): Seahawks, Mariners, Huskies and Broncos. Yes, I recognize the contradiction; I was born in Denver.
Hope you go into depth on this team. I think we are getting a little thin. With Graddy out and Overton hurt lot of pressure on Thomas to handle ball score etc. Also our bigs – with N’daiye playing few minutes (foul problems) – Gant plays more like a small IMHO. Just thought WSU Bigs reserves out played us. Just wondering what you think.
Depth
Which was our strength early, and what made me think we might have final four team. Totally flipped when Gaddy went down. OVerton has been banged up. Wilcox not good enough. And as teams learn to shut down MBA, we have no front court depth. I think the key down the stretch and in the tournamant will be how much Ross steps up. We have seen that he can score in streaks (remember Q-pon his freshman year). If he can become a consistent 15 point scorer, he will take a lot of pressure of Thomas.
by CODawg on Feb 2, 2011 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
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