Where I Come From: Expectations for the Washington Football Season
by John Berkowitz on Jul 12, 2010 9:07 AM PDT
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Everyone expects Washington to be improved in 2010. Most also expects Washington to have a dynamite offense led by Jake Locker, Chris Polk, and Jermaine Kearse. The defense has some question marks concerning depth at certain positions, but the coaches finished spring feeling pretty confident.
The schedule is a killer yet we all expect Washington to win at least eight games this season. Lets take a closer look at that schedule by breaking it up into three categories...Wins, Swing Games, and Longshots.
Wins...These are games I feel pretty confident about. I guess you could put BYU in the "Swing" category but I think we are getting them at the right time.
@ Brigham Young
Playing in Provo is always tough but Washington should have enough of an edge offensively to defeat a rebuilding BYU squad on the road. This game will be competitive into the fourth quarter and the zebras are always a concern on the road in Provo.
Syracuse
Nobody puts baby in the corner and nobody loses to Syracuse at home.
Arizona State
ASU is similar to Nebraska. Good defense and bad offense...but this is a real bad offense and not as good a defense. We get the Devils at home this year and UW will be favored. Tough to believe we lost to these guys last year.
UCLA
Rick Neuheisel pulled one out of his shorts when UCLA beat UW last season. The loss knocked UW out of bowl contention. A missed UW field goal and a late interception gave the Bruins the win. Washington was a better team last year and they are the better team this season.
@ Washington State
The Cougars have to be better this year but will not be good enough to beat Washington. The gap stays at around 30 points even on the road. That being said this is the Apple Cup and the game will be played in Pullman.
Swing Games...These could go either way and each of these teams will likely spend some time being ranked this season if not the entire season.
Nebraska
This one could really go either way. Washington has the offense and Nebraska has the defense. Washington needs to stop the Husker running game. Washington needs to take the lead and let Nebraska chase them. When Nebraska is forced to throw they traditionally aren't at their best. If this game was on the road I would have to call it a longshot.
Oregon State
The Beavers seem to have an edge with a defense that is fast and deep at most positions. OSU is breaking in a new QB but there is plenty of all star help in the backfield. Vegas is predicting a UW win at this point. I am not so sure but if UW wants to make some noise they have to knock off an Oregon school.
@ Arizona
The Wildcats lose a number of starters but they return some key players. Washington was not the better team last year even though they won. Perhaps brushing up on bubble screen may be helpful? I see a lot of holes at Arizona that need to be filled. I also think they peaked last season. I have to call it a toss up.
Stanford
The Cardinal seem ahead of us in development and depth even though they lose Toby Gerhart. What makes me think that is the play I saw on the Cardinal lines last season. They physically dominated us. This is a maturing program which is still on the upswing.
@ California
The last two times we have played California at home we have spanked them. We know one thing...the Bears don't like playing in Seattle during November and December. This is a winnable game on the road but no sure thing. It helps to have it at the end of the year because the Bears haven't been finishing well as of late.
Longshots...I wouldn't call any game a for sure loss this season, but playing these two teams on the road is never going to be a picnic. These are two squads that are capable of a top ten performance this season. These are also two squads which could lose their focus.
@ Southern Cal
At first glance this isn't a good draw for Washington. It is a conference opener on the road against a team with a chip on its shoulder. Notice how the oddsmakers haven't given out a line on this game yet? USC is obviously the favorite but the margin is narrowing. Nobody knows exactly how this team will respond to a new staff and probation.
@ Oregon
I would love for this to be the year we beat the Ducks but even with the disciplinary attrition Oregon is still a solid and favorite to win the Pac 10 crown. The Ducks have depth, talent, and speed. The main concern will be the passing game. We will see how the season progresses but I don't see us winning in Eugene at the moment.
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It is in there now. It just didn’t get pasted…thanks.
by John Berkowitz on Jul 12, 2010 10:17 AM PDT reply actions
I don’t have a strong feeling yet about how the season is going to play out – really want to see how the team shapes up in Fall camp and see what shakes down elsewhere around the Pac-10. So what follows is more just gut feelings rather than really detailed predictions:
- If someone were to tell me the Huskies will go 7-5 this year, I’d be slightly disappointed, though in looking more at the schedule, I probably shouldn’t be. I guess the optimist in me sees the potential of this offense and Locker in his Senior year and thinks that with the issues at USC and Oregon (and OSU lacking an experienced QB), this is a year where the Huskies could really take another huge step forward and go 9-3 and be right in the thick of the Rose Bowl discussion.
However, after looking at the schedule again and going through John’s run-down, I can easily see 7-5. I think John is being a touch optimistic/homer in his listing of BYU under “Wins” and Nebraska under “Swing”, but we’ll see. Still, if the OL takes another step forward, the offensive skill guys perform as we expect, the DT’s improve enough to offset questions at DE, a 3rd LB steps up and the secondary improves as we expect – this could be a 9 win team, if not even better.
I know that will sound crazy to fans of other teams that are only casual observers of the Huskies, but I really think the potential is there.
I agree with this, kirkd.
If this year’s team had last year’s schedule, I’d say anything less than 8 wins would be disappointing. But the reality is that wins are going to be tough to come by at Oregon, USC, Cal and Arizona. The only team with a realistic shot at the conference title that the Dawgs get at home is Oregon State (sorry, Stanford. I just don’t see it.). Against last year’s schedule, this year’s Dawg team probably wouldn’t have a game that would fall into the “longshot” category.
I think the Dawgs are lucky to get BYU in the first game of the season. Regardless of how good a coach Mendenhall is, and how well he really has BYU rolling, you can’t just replace the losses BYU has on offense in the first game of the season and expect to not miss a significant beat. I agree with John here – this is a game the Dawgs should win. That may or may not be the case if the game was played in October.
The one good thing the Dawgs have going for them on D is that the easiest linebacker position to fill is the on strong side. Foster is obviously a known commodity, and Dennison is solid if unspectacular (he also looked physically much more imposing this spring than he did last season). From what I saw from Logan, he’s going to be adequate at worst. And that’s if Aiyewa doesn’t beat him out.
Nebraska, to me, is the litmus test in the early season. The Dawgs might not win, but if the offensive line can stand toe-to-toe with what will be at worst the second-best d-line they’ll face all season, and maybe punch them in the mouth once or twice….Maybe I’m just dreaming, but I expect to see physical improvement along the lines of what we saw this last offseason.
I’m doing the best I can to remain “cautiously optimstic,” but as the season is getting closer, I find myself being more and more excited for the potential this team has. So yes, 7-5 will be a disappointment, along the lines of 5-7 in 2009. Too many “what might have beens.”
I'm optimistic, too
I’m predicting 12-0! (But then, I also predicted 12-0 in 2008.)
Ucla or UW?
Brett Hundley is down to those two according to Scout.com via Bob Condotta’s Blog. What do you guys think our chances are?
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
I’m wondering about Jeff Lindquist, from Mercer Island, one of the lucky seven who got invited to Steve Clarkson’s quarterback camp in Maui, along with Brett Hundley. His short list includes Washington and UCLA. He’s a potential 2012 recruit, one of only two in his class that was at the QB camp.
If we get Hundley, will it scare off Lindquist (assuming Sark plans to offer him) or might we get both?
I’m hoping that Lindquist has grown up boating over to Husky Stadium every Saturday, but I have no idea which school is his favorite. I always get nervous when prospects have Stanford on their list. I think it’s a bit overrated as an undergraduate institution, but some people will go there in a heartbeat just because it’s Stanford.
I’m also wondering whether Jerry Neuheisel will go to UCLA and how that would influence others. I’m guessing he walks on to avoid scaring anyone off and to save a scholarship.
Lindquist is a local kid, and I’m pretty sure I’ve read that he’s a Husky fan. I doubt Hundley committing would be enough to scare him off if that’s true.
Also, there’s not much evidence that QB’s get scared off by who’s currently on the roster. It happens every once in a while, but it’s far more common to see top QB’s commit to schools every year – look at USC, Stanford (under Harbaugh), Texas, etc.
Now, whether all those QB’s stick around after they’re on the team depends on whether they win the job or not and how their future prospects for playing time look…
Yeah I think the reality is that...
…no matter where you go there is going to be serious competition. A kid may not want to compete directly with another stud in his own recruiting class but some uber talent could come in right behind him in the next one. Competition is one of the facts of football at this level.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
From what I read directly on Scout.com, sounds like UW may be in the lead. Still, I’m not going to get too excited until he commits to us, and even then will be cautious until he signs an LOI with us and the NCAA determines he’s qualified.
But I’m a lot more excited about him than I was last week when it seemed that the Ducks were his leaders…
You guys are going to think I'm crazy but I'm predicting 9-3 with a very good chance at 10-2
I don’t see BYU and Syracuse as serious threats and I think the Nebraska game is going to be one of the greatest games of the year in college football. If we get College Gameday I give us the win in that one, the crowd might be the loudest ever (more on this later). The Nebraska game is my swing game between 9-3 and 10-2, and I see our losses as Stanford and that team to the south that shall remain nameless. I’m sure we can all agree ASU and WSU have serious issues coming into the year and that we were better than UCLA last year and should be again this year. I think USC will be very weak in the early half of the season with LK running the show and all of their juniors and seniors considering their options. Oregon State will be a tough game but I like our chances in that because I think we have significantly more offensive power than they do and we’re playing at home. California at the end of the year is really bad for Cal because for some reason they always fold at seasons end once they are out of the conference race. As for Arizona, I’m not sold on Stoops. I think he is the type of coach that will float between 4-8 and 8-4 seasons, spending the greater portion of that time on the lower end. There will be high expectations for Arizona to improve upon their mark last year and I think they will take a step backwards instead.
As for the losses, Stanford seriously out-physical’d us last year and I think they will do it again. Their QB is very talented and Harbaugh is a great coach. For those other guys, if we were playing up here it would be another story but playing down there is a nightmare and that offense, even with a different quarterback running it, is way too difficult to stop.
Lastly, College Gameday. We had it last year for basketball season and it was incredible. The students and school made it a really special experience for the Gameday crew and the folks at ESPN know that if they came here for football it would be epic. We’ve heard that Gameday might come here and has wanted to come here for years (as stated by Herbstreit and Corso themselves) and I think this might finally be our year. Woodward seems like he has it all figured out and as we witnessed last year the game day atmosphere in and around the stadium has significantly improved. I think if Gameday chose Washington it would be something truly special and the school would pull off something crazy. Nebraska is one of those major powers that we traditionally play and pack the stadium for and this occasion will be no different. I expect the loudest game of the year and possibly the loudest of all time for a 2-0 Husky team facing a likely top 10 opponent.
I’m not going to run around proclaiming that Husky Football is back yet as next year without Locker is going to be interesting. However, this team is stacked offensively and has great talent and depth on the defense. If the defensive line can get it figured out this year can be really special. We’ve put up with a lot of bad breaks over the past several years (excessive celebration, Notre Dame replay official, replay officials vs. Ohio State, Tyrone Willingham…) and I think we’re due some good ones.
Are you the JoeinFW...
…that used to call in to the Husky Football Coaches Show? Just curious.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
I'd take 9-3
10-2 would be even sweeter. The one thing I wonder about is where the team is really at right now and can they make the leap that it takes to get to 9-3 or 10-2. If they build on what they showed at the end of the season I think it’s possible but the pessimistic side of me thinks it’s a huge leap to go from 5-7 to 9-3. I think those first three games are critical. I also think they need to find a way to avoid an emotional let down if they actually achieve that 3-0 start. To me for the Huskies to have a season like that they have to have most of the cards falling their way.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
I’m not too worried about a let down if the Huskies start off 3-0. They get a bye after that. I think these coaches will use it to focus the team. The next game will be at USC. The Trojans will likely be 4-0, having a relatively easy out of conference schedule. Washington may be their first real test under Lane Kiffin. That game will be huge for a lot of reasons, regardless of our record, but I think there’s a decent chance both teams could be undefeated at that point. I guess that’s something we’ll be happy to worry about if it happens. :)
USC transfers
I’m wondering whether there is a deadline for USC players who are currently juniors transferring without having to sit out a year. In other words, does the threat of current juniors leaving hang over USC for the next two years? I guess I had assumed that they’d leave before this current season if they were inclined to do that.
Re: UCLA
I like scanning the SBnation PAC-10 blogs for info on UCLA. On last year’s game, I think your memory is a little “purple tinted”.
A missed UW field goal and a late interception gave the Bruins the win.
I don’t think that assesment is correct. We did everything we could to hand that game to you on a silver platter. Did you forget that UCLA gave the ball up 5 times? Also, we lost our starting QB halfway through. Under those conditions you’d expect a one sided slaughter. Despite all that, we still eeked out a win.
You guys had a lot of great games last year, but when you played us at the rose bowl, we won despite our sloppiest performance of the season.
True...but...
It was a terrible game for Washington…but if you want to boil it down to what happened late in the game that was the condensed story.
by John Berkowitz on Jul 13, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
No predictions from crazi
But I am very optimistic about the possibilities this upcoming season. The momentum we built last season should energize the players on the roster along with the incoming freshmen.
One thing that has to be addressed by the head coach and the coaching staff is on field decisions. I liked that Sark was ballsy enough to go for TDs on the road at Notre Dame, but I also think it is very wise to put points on the board too. On the road you have to put points on the board and that usually spells out sending in the FG unit. A couple of successful FG attempts are worth 6 points- that’s better then no points on the road. On the road play the percentages and take the points, because you never know what can happen. Play the game and rack up points anyway you can.
At home in a friendly enviornment? Hey send the offense back out and get the pay dirt. But on the road take the points- please.
All I saw was purple
Furthermore...
We have dates where we are on the road to Cal, USC, and Oregon. Those are going to be very challenging venues. If we are going to have the type of season we all hope for, then surely we have to get HOT early in the season and sustain that energy for the tough road games we will be facing. Home games have to be wins with our in league road game schedule. This is one reason why I think the opener at BYU is huge in order to build the type of momentum we need to carry over later in the season. Said I wasn’t going to make a prediction but here goes…
8-4 record- with two losses from the at Cal, at USC, at Oregon gauntlet
9-3 record- with two key road victories coming out of the at Cal, at USC, at Oregon gauntlet
An 8-4 record is more realistic at this point. However the league is wide open again this season. I think a 7-5 record would be a big disappointment from die hard Husky fans. Yet on the same page I think what we’ve been thru- we’d take it. I just want to see No.10 go out with a sense of accomplishment. Locker won’t have a chance in hell of winning the Heisemen unless we have at mimimum 8 wins- that’s just reality fellas.
All I saw was purple
You gotta get some...
..breaks too and it’s critical that we stay healthy…these are pretty obvious huh?
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
I think...
We go 8-4 this season….
Win all the definites, lose a couple of the swing games and then lose the 2 obvious games… 8-4 probably gets us to the Sun or Holiday bowl this season!
I’ll take it.
Blue sky scenario – we go to the Alamo – or we beat USC, lose to Oregon and Oregon loses twice on conference….
What's Sark Thinking?
Wouldn’t you think he’d be saying to himself, “I’ve Jake Locker and he’s primed to have a monster senior season, if I can just put together a solid defense and take this running attack to the next level, the sky is the limit!”
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
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