Picking the Pac Week Three
by John Berkowitz on Sep 17, 2009 6:42 AM PDT
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PrintIt is an interesting week in the Pac 10. Oregon is still in recovery mode. UW is trying to pull the ultimate upset. Arizona is trying to show they belong in the upper division. OSU is out for revenge. Cal is on cruise control. Rick Neuheisel continues to win ugly. Stanford is in for a tougher game than they expect. WSU plays its last winnable game and ASU is still playing an exhibition schedule.
If you are a Husky fan there is really only one game this week and I can't understand why there is still around 15,000 tickets left for this one. College football doesn't get any better than this and if I could have stayed in Seattle a few more days I would have done it.
California at Minnesota
I lived in Minnesota for a few years and I have to say that I am a casual Gopher fan. The new stadium on the Minnesota campus is just amazing and it is going to help them recruit in a way they haven't been able to since the mid 1960's. I saw Minnesota struggle on television in its opener against Syracuse. Minnesota was able to pull that game out in overtime. We all know how good Syracuse is so it is safe to say that even though this is an away game in what should be a difficult venue to play in the Bears should have no problem with the Gophers.
Cal by 21
Utah at Oregon
This is a pivotal game for the Ducks. If they win this one they dodge the serious bullet of opening the season 1-2 in non conference play. Utah struggled with San Jose State last weekend which isn't a good sign. They are however a better team than Purdue on both sides of the ball. Defensively I think the Ute's are going to give the Ducks problems.
Utah by 7
Arizona at Iowa
The Wildcats face their first real big time opponent of the season on the road. The defense has been stout so far but the offense has been all Grigsby. If you stop the Arizona running game you stop Arizona. Iowa is 2-0 on the season. They narrowly averted disaster in their opener against Northern Iowa by blocking a late minute FG attempt. they had no problem the following week beating up on Iowa State. This looks to be a pretty evenly matched game for both teams and I have to go witht he home team.
Iowa by 3
SMU at Washington State
The Cougars couldn't handle Hawaii last week which is pretty much a June Jones creation. This week they face the real June Jones and the outcome should actuallyb e closer because i don't think that the Mustangs are better than Hawaii. The Coug's should actually have a shot at beating these guys but the coaching and attitude is so poor right now it could get ugly even at home.
SMU by 14
Cincinnati at Oregon State
The Bearcats beat the pulp out of the Beavers last year at home and now it is time for the beavers to return the favor in Corvallis. This game features two of the better coaches in college football so it should be a well played contest. OSU struggled on the road against UNLV last week and needed a last second FG to win the game. The Bearcats are ranked 17th in the country and have trounced Rutgers and SE Missouri State. OSU looks fragile to me at this point of the season. They gave up too may yards to Portland State and they narrowly beat UNLV. On the other hand traveling across the country to play a game in a hostile environment is never easy.
Cincinnati by 10
San Jose State at Stanford
The tree stumbled on the road last week against Wake Forest in a game they were favored to win. I have been saying all pre season that Stanford lacks depth and is one dimensional on offense. SJSU is coming off a close loss to Utah after being throttled by USC. If you watched the first quarter of the USC contest you came away with the impression that they aren't a bad team. This is the biggest game of the year for SJSU and Stanford is looking ahead to Washington. I think this is one to put on your upset watch but I think the Cards simply have more talent in this one.
Stanford by 14
LA Monroe at Arizona State
The Sun Devils only game this season was against Big Sky cellar dweller Idaho State. Even though they trounced the bengals we really have no idea if Erickson has fixed what was ailing this team. This weeks cupcake is LA Monroe. It will be a much better test than Idaho State because this team can generate a little offense. They put 10 on the board against Texas in a lopsided opener. Last week they scored 58 against somebody called Texas Southern. ASU should have no problem in this one but keep an eye on how many points they give up! Next week exhibition season ends in the desert with a tough road game against Georgia.
ASU by 21
Kansas State at UCLA
KSU is in serious rebuilding mode and UCLA is lucky to get an opponent like that after losing their starting QB to a broken jaw for four weeks. The Bruins will be starting a frosh QB which means there is the potential for more turnovers than usual. The Bruin defense which won the game last week in Knoxville by helping create turnovers will carry them to another victory this week. KSU is just awful and UCLA can beat them with your grandmother at QB.
UCLA by 21
USC at Washington
This is the big game this week as far as I am concerned and I just happen to like our chances based on the history of this series. Nine times out of ten we usually gives this juggernaught a harder game than it wants or expects. This weekend will be no exception. Last time USC played up here they were lucky to escape with a victory and I feel that will again be the case on Saturday. I know the Trojans are one of the very best teams in the country, have the Huskies beat on paper, but they do have a history of letting down after big games. They may have beat Ohio State but the Buckeyes beat on them at the same time. USC is definitely bruised and battered this week.
Jake Locker is the best player in the conference so far this season. He can beat you in so many ways. Now that he has a competent coaching staff and some tools around him he has the UW offense humming to a tune of over 450 yards per game. I don't think USC is going to be able to stop him. The Huskies will score their points on Saturday against the toughest defense they will play all season. The question is will they score enough?
The key for Washington is stopping or slowing down the USC running game and forcing mistakes. If that happens Washington could pull out the victory. Since I don't like predicating victories on the possibility of turnovers that might happen I have to give the nod to USC by a TD which is a minor victory in itself since the Trojans are favored by 22. UW has a 25-30% chance of beating USC on Saturday and the Huskies are due.
USC by 7
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I subscribe to the "stuff the box, score a lot of points" strategy..
.. for this game. The key in my mind is to force USC to play catch up. We need to draw first blood, keep the foot on the accelerator and force that young USC offense to make plays in the passing game. They’ll very likely make their share of them, but they are relatively untested with the pressure on (remember, it was Joe McKnight that keyed the tOSU drive).
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
The defense has been pretty good against the run, though we were vulnerable to outside runs against LSU. That’s a concern, and I’m sure the USC staff has taken note of it. Our lack of real pass rush so far is a major concern – if Corp/Barkley has time, they’ll carve up our secondary. USC’s playmakers at WR are similar to what LSU has. We need to get pressure on their QB, and if it’s Corp, hope that he doesn’t burn us with his feet.
The good news is our defense should be reasonably familiar with USC’s offense, as they see a lot of it everyday in practice. It’s not exactly the same – Sark has modified his playbook to account for Jake’s abilities – but a lot of what they’ll see Saturday, they’ve been seeing since Spring.
We’re going to need some turnovers, preferably a pick-6 or two.
On offense, Jake has been very good so far. But this will be the best defense he’s faced thus far. As fast, if not faster than LSU’s, and better up front IMO. Jake is going to have to make some plays with his feet, as I suspect he’ll face a fierce pass rush. Sark will probably need to call some screens & draws to keep USC honest. The running game has been decent, but not overpowering. I’d guess that USC will bottle up our running game pretty well, so much of our offense will depend on Jake and our WR’s getting open.
We have to hope the fans bring the same intensity they did against LSU (I’ll be doing my part), USC comes in flat and we catch some early breaks and get an early lead.
Underneath routes look like the point of attacking USC
Their LBs are real good run stoppers, but I don’t see USC’s LBs very good in pass coverage. Now someone is going to throw out the intercetpion that darn near went to the house in the Ohio State game. Keep in mind before you blurt that stuff out. That was Terrell Prior- an awesome athlete but not so much a QB at this point in his college career.
We’ve got a slew of receivers and Locker could just go off. We’ve got to be able to go over the middle. If we are successful with the underneath stuff and over the middle, it could open up the verticals, where we’d have more single man coverage. But to open up the passing game we’ve got to hit our recievers in the vacinity of the LBs, go over the middle to open up everything. If Locker and the receivers are ON, then it should open up the running game with play action.
Screens? I’ll say we’re getting better at them. In the past we’ve looked horrible in screens, but I did see a successful screen (Idaho or LSU) I can’t remember. Not sure if I want to see anymore Jordan Polk reverses- those plays take way too long to develope. We need to come out and hit USC in the mouth. Lateral moving plays will be stiffled by USC’s defensive speed. We need to go right at em’.
I Bark for Sark! WOOF!!!
All I saw was purple
We’ve had successful screens against both. One against LSU went for 51 yards to Fogerson, and I’m pretty sure the TD pass to Fogerson against Idaho was on a screen as well.
The Dawgs definitely need to go right at USC and ditch the lateral running plays – USC (like LSU) has waaaay too much speed for those to be successful. It’s one thing if Polk can bounce a run outside for big yardage, but the designed sweeps and tosses are unlikely to find much success against USC and their speed.
Middleton could be a big time weapon for us down the seam with his size and hands. And if we can find any success running the ball, it’d help set up the play action and see if we can get Mays to bite.
Turnovers...
…are huge and we have to have a positive there. We can’t be -2 like we were against LSU. If we do that and are able to run the ball effectively I think we have a chance to win.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
Husky Defense
They played a great game against LSU. We have got to have another performance like that. Get the crowd into it early and build on that. If we can improve on stopping the big plays we’ll have a chance to win.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
Considering who we were playing...
…I thought it was an excellent performance. Way better than I expected.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
That's what I'm talkin' about dawgfan
Considering where we’ve been under Gilby and TW I think it is safe to say we played some AWESOME defense vs. LSU- BaBY!
The LSU game was HUGE for this program. And to see our kids stand toe to toe with one of the game’s best programs was out of this world freakin’ awesome. If that game didn’t jazz you up then I not sure you have a pulse.
At this point I will gladly take what I saw vs. LSU over any defense we’ve had since arguably the James/Lambo era. Did you not see us in the goal line stand? Holy COW! I was completely and totally livid! Note to Husky Defense: Bring it BaBY!
I Bark for Sark! WOOF!!!
All I saw was purple
People are making waaaaay too much of our defense against LSU. You know what was the best defense we had against LSU? Our offense. They were on the field for 37 minutes, keeping the defense fresh and limiting the number of plays LSU could run.
We were OK against LSU, but we’ve still got a loooooooong way to go to be good.
we did generate 4 3+outs against LSU
… that may not happen to them again this year.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
The 3 and outs were a big plus, that’s for sure. That said, I think LSU wasn’t expecting to have to pull out their “A-game” offensively and started the game figuring they could run all over us and keep things simple. Once they realized that wasn’t going to work, they had to start getting a little more creative and daring, and their option runs to the outside were quite successful, and we saw what their talented WR’s did against our secondary once they started passing more.
Don’t get me wrong, our defense is improved, but it’s got a looooong way to go still before we should start describing it as “good”.
And it certainly wouldn’t shock me if teams like Alabama or Florida have good enough defenses to get 4+ 3 and outs vs. LSU.
You should listen to kirkd
He couldn’t be more right. I would never call 300+ yards and 31 points a great defense, I wouldn’t even call it good. Not bad for this team, but there is still a lot for them to learn. If you doubt me, see our defensive performance against Idaho, that was a big reminder that our defense is still our weak spot.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
Yeah maybe it's just...
…that in comparison to the last few years, our defense looks GOOD!
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
Loved the sack by Tamu...
…on the LSU QB! That was sWeet!
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
I would never call 300+ yards and 31 points a great defense, I wouldn’t even call it good.
Well, I wouldn’t go that far in the other direction either. In this era of football, holding a good SEC team to 321 yards would normally be a good showing – normal being if that yardage came in 65 or so plays rather than the 48 LSU needed.
Also, you can’t blame the defense for the pick-6 Locker threw – the defense held them to 24. Not bad, but as I argued earlier, a lot of that was due to our offense having a significant time of possession advantage.
I'd call it a satisfactory performance
LSU was a very good opponent, but as you stated, the average yards per play wasn’t anything to get excited about. IMO, it wasn’t a good performance, but it wasn’t bad either.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
I dunno – the average number of plays per game an offense gets is ~67. If LSU had run 67 plays at the average yards per play they had against the UW (6.69) they would’ve totaled 448 yards.
I think the defense was OK against LSU, but far from excellent.
WAY better than...
last year! We actually had several 3 and outs and got a couple of sacks!
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
Given that they had two very long pass plays on breakdowns...
… average yards per play is not a good statistic to draw that inference from. Over 100 yards of their total offense came on two plays that are far off the curve. Take those away and there is a different base of stats to draw inferences from. The median is a better number than the mean in this case.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
So I ask myself . . .
if LSU had another 20 plays on offense, how many of those would they break for big plays??? Numbers are a great starting point, but they can be twist to show what you want. To me the Idaho game sticks out as a HUGE reminder that our defense isn’t as good we hoped it was.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
A lot of "what if's" going on
LSU DID have 100 yards on two plays but they DID NOT have another 20 plays. Thats why you have to love this game. You can win every statistic category and still lose. Cowboys did it in 1996 (i believe that was the year) where they were outgained in every category but still won the Super Bowl. I remember because my 5th grade teacher was a Cowboy fan who didnt wear under and loved to show her bra. She was a strange cookie.
Hey, I totally understand that stats are great but the final score is the final score. All I’m saying is that our defense didn’t play all that great against LSU. They played OK. They played quite well against the inside runs. Once LSU realized they couldn’t just run it up the gut the whole game and dominate us, they had to get a little more creative, and that’s when things started to go south for us. They exposed our weakness in the secondary, and they showed teams with power and speed can turn the corner on our defense.
That’s a good point Gekko, and it’s also important to remember that with only 48 plays, those 2 big pass plays influence the average a great deal.
Breaking down the play by play, the median yard gain for LSU was 4 yards. They only one negative yardage play – the sack by Ta’amu. They had 9 plays that gained no yardage (8 of them incomplete passes). They did have 9 plays that gained 10+ yards, including the two long TD pass plays.
Looking back at the play by play, I do feel a little better about how our defense played, but I still feel that the performance shouldn’t be termed “great” in an objective sense. It was great to see given what we’ve seen over the last few years here, but compared to where we want to be, it was average.
Agree
Definitely not a Great performance but a good one. Like I have stated, its all about little victories at this point. We need to build on the small things to make them grow into great things. Snow ball effect…a small snow ball can create an avalanch. We just need it to start somewhere…
wrinkles
we need to show some oddball stuff to throw USC off their timing and make them stay at home on D. I doubt we have the talent or overall speed to play man up with them, so a few unseen (to date) plays to keep them honest and from cheating up. Stop run, including Corp, force Corp to pass, win Turnover battle = results
gap control defense
has been pretty good so far. the fact that we are playing physical also plays to our advantage. the tackle dtn is up against has the flu. we are developing depth on the d-line.
linebackers need to mind their assignments.
on offense we are getting into a rhythm and extended drives on a reloaded and laterally slowed t. mays should allow jj to test him deep.
i’m sure we’ll see some new wrinkles against the sc zone d. our spread could give them fits.
and don’t ya think johri is gonna get some touches at tailback?
James Johnson, Goodwin and Fogerson
…we are getting to have a serious number of playmakers out there. It makes it tough on a defense.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
No predictions for me this week
I just hope we’ve been planning this game for quite some time. If we bring out the tenacity we saw vs. LSU then game on. I highly doubt this coaching staff will allow this team to come out flat.
LSU told a lot, now lets just put it out on the line and go with it. Hostile environments don’t scare USC- they waltzed into the horseshoe and immediately took control of the game.
I think one of USC’s weaknesses are at LB. They got guys that can lay the wood on you in running the ball, but I think (just spif balling here), but I think the pass could be there for us all day long, especially the underneath routes. A very poor passing Terrell Price was able to see stuff open- I think Jake might have something to say about who wins this game.
I Bark for Sark! WOOF!!!
All I saw was purple
it depends on the qb play
if aaron corp does start he is actually a better athlete then barkley. he is a dual threat. of course he could have some serious jitters while jake locker is very steady when healthy. the line has been bet down to 18 1/2 points too so there are many believer’s in the huskies. i just happen to be one of them! it will be close. ramble on!
by wolfmanshowlforever on Sep 17, 2009 9:17 PM PDT reply actions
Lets be realistic here for a second
Our defense played well againist LSU. They flew around, got pressure (though only one sack but very close to a safety as well), hit well and stopped the run againist a very good RB in C. Scott. This defense last year was the worst in school history. We can’t expect a 180 in less than a year. I agree with Sark and Holt that you have to take the small victories and grow from there. Holding C. Scott to 60 yds (around there, correct me if I’m wrong) is a great day for our run defense. Ta’ Amu getting a sack was a great win for our defense. Its baby steps at this point.
The defense was NOT amped/hyped againist Idaho and it showed. Look for more of an inspired LSU performance this week.
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