Key Matchups
by John Berkowitz on Mar 21, 2009 8:02 AM PDT
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PrintWashington's 6'7 250 lb John Brockman vs Purdue's 6'8 212 lb Robbie Hummell
Brockman is obviously going to be the most physical of the two inside but Hummell is very comfortable shooting the three so he could negate Brockman's muscle advantage inside if he draws him outside. This is a difficult match up and I could see Holiday or Gant picking him up if he starts hitting outside with Brockman switching to cover Johnson. If that happens you have Brockman giving up three inches to Johnson. Purdue wants this kid hot from he outside so they can draw Brockman away from the boards.
Edge Even: If Hummell starts hitting from outside and drawing Brockman too far out UW is going to have to make an adjustment. Offensively the Huskies will drive it inside and try to pick up fouls on the Purdue big men. Brockman is very good at this.
Washington's 6'6 Quincy Pondexter vs Purdue's 6'4 E'Twaun Moore
These two swing men have the ability to score. Moore averages 14 points a game and Quincy has been averaging 11.8. He is coming off a 23 point performance against MSU. I have to go with Quincy on this one. He is one of the hottest players all around in the tournament so far. Dentmon could also end up getting this defensive assignment depending on how Romar wants to line up.
Edge Washington : Pondexter has developed a complete game and has the hot hand right now. Moore is going to get his points but Pondexter isn't going to get blown up by him.
Washington's 6'8 215 lb Darnell Gant / 6'9 235 lb Matthew Bryan-Amaning vs Purdue's 6'10 215 lb JaJuan Johnson
Tough matchup here for Washington. I would think that MBA gets a lot more minutes than usual this evening. Johnson is a pretty good defender. He was named to the All-Big Ten Defensive second team. I think this is one of the key match ups of the game.
Edge Even : This is a tough match up and I give Johnson a slight edge going in. Brockman could be the guy on him defensively if they move Gant or Holiday over to cover Hummell.
Washington's 5'8 180 lb Isaiah Thomas vs Purdue's 5'9 165 lb Lewis Jackson
Isaiah has been in a shooting slump and he is going to draw the best defensive guard in the Big 10 in Kramer at times. Jackson is only averaging 5.4 ppg. Thomas is good for double figures most nights.
Edge Washington: You have to give the Pac 10 freshmen of the year the nod over Jackson.
Washington's 5'11 185 lb Justin Dentmon vs Purdue's 6'3 205 lb Chris Kramer
Dentmon has been doing everything that is needed to win except scoring from downtown lately. Kramer is only averaging 5 ppg on offense but he us one of the best defenders in the Big 10.
Edge Even: Dentmon's quickness and scoring potential negates Kramer on defense. Dentmon needs to break out of the slump for UW to have an advantage here.
Venoy Overton vs The Purdue Guards
Overton can only be described as the most annoying back court presence I have seen on any team in this tournament. Purdue hasn't seen anything like this kid this year. He is a disruptive defensive force that Dick Harter would have loved.
Edge Washington: Chris Kramer is Purdue's version but Overton is over the top disruptive. Purdue will deal with him better than MSU did.
The Washington Bench vs The Purdue Bench
PG Venoy Overton, SG Elston Turner, SM Justin Holiday, and PF Matthew Bryan-Amaning can always be counted on to provide quality minutes during any stretch of the game. Overton was already described is a force. MBA brings a well rounded big man into the game who can score and defend. We all saw what Turner could do from the outside. He can jump start an offense. Holiday is smooth player and one of the best defenders on the squad.
Nemanja Calasan, Keaton Grant, Marcus Green are the guys off the bench for Purdue filling out an eight man rotation. Lewis Jackson is very underrated as a freshman point guard. He is incredibly quick and is a harassing defender. PF 6'9 250 lb Nemanja Calasan is capable of going off and he is a good potential guy to defend Brockman. Keaton Grant is an up and down shooter who is dangerous from the 3-point line.
Edge Washington: Pretty close but UW is a little deeper, faster, and diversified.
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Great write up
I like our chances here. Our guards are playing to well right now and the senior leadership of Brockman is to strong.
Lets go UW!
Excellent analysis
I see this game as almost dead even. I think the Kramer/Dentmon thing will be fun to watch because we need Kramer to be more of a threat offensively. Kramer has been getting most of his points lately late in games from the foul line when we’ve had a lead and needed someone to close it out from the line. Against Northern Iowa he passed up a large number of wide open shots. He also gets much of his offense via steal ont he defensive end. The same is true for Lewis Jackson.
I would not underestimate Jackson’s quickness. He can penetrate offensively, but has trouble finishing the layup. If he can do that with consistency it could cause you problems.
Grant can be a huge wild card off the bench. If he is able to step into threes and shoot off of perfect passes he is a much better shooter.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boliermaker Blog
I wouldn’t underestimate anyone on the Purdue team to tell you the truth. This should be a close one.
For Purdue to win they need to get hot outside and force Washington off the boards.
For Washington to win they need to drive the ball inside at the Purdue big guys and draw some early fouls. Tight play on the perimeter takes the three point shot away from Purdue.
by John Berkowitz on Mar 21, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
FYI, it's Robbie Hummel, not Ronnie
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boliermaker Blog
no problem
Here is my open thread for the day. Feel free to stop by
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boliermaker Blog
I'll be watching the game
at our place in Ocean Shores. We’re headed out later this morning.
Good write up John.
The Dawgs can’t afford to start off slow unless they slow Purdue down as well.
The Low Post Adjustment
If Ronnie Hummell attempts to pull Brockman out on the perimeter, then surely coach Romar will move Gant over to guard Hummell. Darnell is one of the best low post guys I’ve ever seen w/ the ability to defend the perimeter.
Brockman won’t have much trouble with the taller JaJuan Johnson. It’s all about blocking out in the post. 250 lbs. compared to 215 lbs.? That’s like moving a refridgerator. It can be done, but it is a slow process and you can’t get any leverage on something that wide.
Still think the key is at guard play. Not to mention in order to keep the wolves off Brockman and QPon, Gant, Holiday, and Overton have got to hit that shot or they will double up down low.
Go Huskies! WOOF!!!
All I saw was purple
It couls just be sort of a replay of Brockman against Vanardo. JB knows how to position himself against taller players to negate that advantage. I think Johnson is better on both sides of the court than Vanardo minus that tremendous shot blocking ability that Jarvis possessed.
by John Berkowitz on Mar 21, 2009 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Agree
Everyone (me included) was so darn worried about Vanardo and his shot blocking talent. But after watching the Washington/Mississippi State game I came to the conclusion that the shot blocking stat is not a really good stat. After all shot blocking does not lead to point production. Most often a great shot blocker will get carried away and swat it out of bounds, thus the opposition gets another possession. And if the shot blocker does keep it in bounds then surely it is a 50/50 opportunity to retain possession.
Assists lead to point production. Rebounding (especially offensive rebounding) leads to point production. But the blocked shot stat is overhyped. Essentually the way I see it, carrying statistics for shot blocking would be the equivelent of keeping stats for dunks. But then again dunks produce points so that doesn’t work either.
I think maybe the reason I lost interest in the tournament last night was due to the coachsark.com video that was posted. MAN! Am I ready for some Washington Husky football.
Go Dawgs! WOOF!!!
All I saw was purple
It can be a big factor
UW had a great game plan in the MSU game and it negated all the Bulldogs strenghts.
by John Berkowitz on Mar 21, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
With little time to prepare, I hope coach Romar has a good game plan for the Boilermakers. I’ll be honest, I haven’t seen much of Purdue this year. But I do know this, the Boilermakers have rich tradition on the hardwood. Now they aren’t Indian, Carolina, Duke, or Ucla. But they do know their hoops.
All I saw was purple
i think you're way off on the shot block stat...
it’s not an extra possession when the ball gets swatted out of bounds… its a momentum boost first when you get a huge statement block like that, but second it gives the ball back to the opponent with likely little time left on the shot clock.
and when you dont connect on the block, you’re at least causing enough of a deterrent to alter the initial shot from its original course. take UCONN for example and how much more efficient that defense is when Thabet is in the game, then when he’s on the bench with foul trouble. He’s an imposing force inside that scares other teams from the paint. JJ is a poor man’s thabet in that respect. For no better example, you can look at our game in AnnArbor against michigan… JJ got two very quick fouls and only played in 5 of the first 27 minutes of the game. michigan and manny harris were able to have career days from the field with him on the bench. Courtney Sims had a career high, and manny went for near 30. all in due part of missing defensive stud JJ on that bench.
one thing it doesn’t do well is allow your shot blocker to get in position for the rebound. for this JJ has diluted RPG numbers, while other players like Moore, Hummel, and Grant have reaped those benefits in crashing the weak side.
to wrap it up, the shot block is a momentum swinging, scoring opportunity eraser that imposes its will on opponenents offensive gameplans.
by dasMetzger on Mar 21, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree
However, shot blockers also tend to come from the weak side to get the majority of their blocks, and in doing so leave their man unguarded. If a shot blocker gets into the air prematurely a quick pass to the vacated man almost always results in an easy layup. Also, since the majority of rebounds go to the weak side, if the shot blocker doesn’t connect, it increases the offense’s chance of getting the rebound.
http://www.spartyandfriends.com/
My point was that the shot block doesn’t lead to point production. Yes it does all those things (agreed), but a mature team who seldom gets rattled won’t be affected by a shot block, they’ll just come right back at you.
Statement, schmatement! It’s all about scoring more points the the other guys. Vanardo indeed is a great player, but I’d be a little more worried about a guy his size that can dominate a game on both sides of the floor.
If a team is rattled by a shot block or a dunk then the coach hasn’t properly taught his team the intracies of championship basketball. Good teams don’t get rattled.
All I saw was purple
post play...
being able to move a fridge is a concern if you’re looking to move inside. JJ has one of the sweetest mid range jumpers for a big man that i’ve seen in a long time. he’s more than capable of hitting it from 15-19 feet away, which JB is not comfortable with in defending. and in regards to defending, JJ was all-defensive and first team all big10 this year, while leading the league in blocked shots. not as many as Jarvis… but not far away either.
the key for purdue will be hitting our jump shots at a better % than their first round game, and staying out of foul trouble with JJ and kramer.
by dasMetzger on Mar 21, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
UW
Overton was not as good as advertised. The CBS commentators were all over his nuts. He defended with his hands and deservedly got called for several fouls. I’d like to see this guy defend the Big Ten’s big, strong guards all season. Honestly the only thing ‘vernoying’ about this guy was his constant hand checking to make up for his slow footwork.
On the other hand, Brockman was a tough and classy player who nearly pulled it out for you guys. He plays with heart and determination.
by Scotty Leisure on Mar 21, 2009 11:34 PM PDT reply actions
You didn't mention the Coach....
Advantage: Purdue……………..
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