The Monday Morning Wash
by John Berkowitz on Mar 2, 2009 6:00 AM PST
Email
PrintI started a series of articles last week on PI sports writers who have been involved in some way covering Washington Husky sports. The paper will likely close within the next couple of weeks so this is a great time for a little reflection on the subject.
Every sports fan has their favorite sports writers and I actually really enjoy the writers at all the local fish wraps in the Puget Sound area. Living in Chicago gives you a much better appreciation of the talent these guys possess. I am not saying there isn't journalistic quality in the Windy City but Seattle has been blessed with writers who have a lot of talent, compassion, and most importantly deep local roots.
These are just the beginning of very tough and challenging times. Some say we haven't seen anything like it since World War II and the Great Depression. Newspapers as we know it are all going away and they aren't going to replaced in a way we like online or at all in some cases. Writers and staffers across the country are losing their jobs each and every single week. The sad reality is that only in rare cases are they going to be able to find another job doing the same type of thing.
The Seattle Times to the naive may seem like the big winner because they finally succeeded in killing off their arch rival the Seattle PI. The opposite is actually true because the PI and Hearst Corporation get to make an easy exit while the Times is stuck with all the actual expensive infrastructure that will have to be liquidated in the near future when that institution invariably faces bankruptcy even in a large one newspaper market.
We all talk about the future of online newspapers but the reality is that the technology and embracing of that technology by the populace will not happen in time for the majority of local newspapers in the country to be saved.
Reading the paper online is fine for the reader but there isn't enough room for the advertising content to offset the cost of producing the quality content we are used to. That being said most of the opportunities for that advertising content has been siphoned off by Google, Craig's List, and the like.
It is all about advertising revenue not the actual content. Online newspapers like print newspapers don't generate enough advertising to support the type of content we have enjoyed since Guttenberg invented the printing press.
There are promising things out there like Kindle Readers which some day may evolve into a viable way to distribute the news and display advertising but to be honest we are five to ten years away from those devices bring developed into the appliances they need to be before gaining acceptance and use of the general populace.
The future of newspapers
The optimum newspaper device will have a thin organic screen that can be folded or rolled just like a piece of laminated note book paper and have the life of a plasma television. It will be user operated by a touch screen and be able to display full color animation.
The organic screen will have to be bright enough so you can read it easily in daylight and all this technology will be operated by a thin printed low voltage power storage source that has the weight of less than a penny and a charge that can last up to 24-36 hours of continuous use.
It will have WIFI and Bluetooth built in so that it can update automatically wherever in the world you happen to be. It will sport a single or maybe a double page format that you can operate with your finger just like todays touch screens but be a feather weight device.
You will be able to subscribe to whatever content you like and you will most likely pay for that privilege on a subscription basis because advertising revenues alone will not be able to support the price it takes to produce the quality content needed to be as relevant as todays printed newspaper.
The cost of these appliances will have to be extremely inexpensive because they are going to be made for the masses. Like the personal computer or cell phone almost every single person on the planet will eventually own one of these gizmos.
How far are we away from this probable reality?
Rigid low tech black and white versions of this format will be available later this year that make the new Amazon Kindle II look like an antique in many ways. The full blown version available at an affordable price that could save local newspapers is probably a decade away.
The game for newspapers like the Seattle Times is to stay alive long enough for this type of technology to become a reality and be universally accepted. They also have the unfortunate disadvantage of being stuck with all the bricks, mortar and infrastructure that are causing them to bleed assets. The end of the PI actually buys them a little more time but does little to solve the long range problem of print survivability.
The game plan for the Hearst Corporation and others like them is to mothball the unprofitable local brands they do own and replace them with skeleton staffs who will run an online newspaper to preserve the brands until the day this type of technology is available and widely distributed.
The next five to ten years are going to be very tough for this industry until it succeeds in this vision of reinventing itself. The Seattle Times feels that they can be profitable again by 2016 if they can hold on that long. In the meantime they and other local papers will continue to cut everything so they can just survive.
The fall out in all of this is the loss of traditional local journalism during this reinvention phase. Cost cutting will create a consolidation of national and local news gathering services. In the end cash rich entities such as the Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp could be among the survivors and ultimately the arbiters of what you read and how you ultimately formulate your opinions.
I guess that is the true tragedy of living in a one newspaper city, region or perhaps nation. The different points of view the local independent press has supplied for generations is in danger of being replaced by a one world sanitized corporate press release.
It all sounds a little Orwellian doesn't it?
It may be 2009 but it has all the earmarks of the beginning of 1984.
15 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
About 30 years ago
It was 1977 or 78, I installed three phototypesetters at the PI thereby starting the phasing out of hot metal as it was called. The big banks of mechanical monster Linotypes were replaced with typesetters. People lost jobs then as well as all of the Linotype operaters din’t become keyboarders for the local stories.
I read several online “newsapers”, for the lack of a better word, both local newspapers in my area have strong internet presences. The Olympian has switched to an online subscription if you don’t have a home delivery subscription. The Centralia Chronicle hasn’t started doing that yet. I read both of them online when I’m away from home for a few days.
Linotypes
I was just thinking about that Jack in a different way.
I was thinking back to the days of when you read the PI and your fingers were basically black from all the newsprint rubbing off on them. You always had to wash your hands after reading the PI. The Times had more modern presses as long as I can remember so the type didn’t rub off.
The PI historically was always more gritty than the Times. Even though it was owned by Hearst which was a national corporation in some ways it felt more local than the Times because Hearst allowed iot to be run locally and it had a smaller budget.
I remember the ink
situation as well. The inks used now are soy based, biodegradable and cheaper. I think that change started about twenty or twenty five years ago.
It’s an interesting situation for sure. Looking at it from another angle, consider the rise in popularity of various blogs and the information they provide and competition they present to traditional media. In particular, consider coverage of the Seattle Mariners – for many fans, content provided through the traditional means, i.e. the beat reporters and columnists in the PI & Times has become secondary to the commentary and analysis provided by sites such as USS Mariner and Lookout Landing. Fans of those sites recognize that the commentary and analysis provided is far superior to that which is found via the traditional sources, and it’s provided for free. Geoff Baker has done a great job trying to modernize the approach at the Times, and his blog is a great resource of information, but his analysis still pales in comparison to what USS Mariner and Lookout Landing provide, and they’re doing it for the love of the game rather than as a job.
Now, I don’t think those sites can continue to operate this way forever – the guys at those sites are unlikely going to be able or willing to provide that level of content for free indefinitely, so either they start moving to a subscription model similar to Dawgman, or they’ll have to keep recruiting new young talent that is willing to work for free simply to get their name out there.
And while the free blog content out there is, in many ways, superior to what is found in the traditional media, the difficulty is locating that content and determining how much, or in what ways, to trust it. With newspapers and magazines, not only do you have editors to proof content and provide checks and balances, you also have long histories with those institutions through which you can make informed judgments about their leans and biases. And because they are paid jobs, you have a greater amount of stability in the presentation of that content.
These are interesting times. I wonder in 20 years if we’ll look back on this transition as ultimately a bad thing, or simply just a necessary adjustment to the times and technology.
Kirk- Let's talk about the repackaging of the news
I try to come up with as much original material as possible but my ultimate goal is to have you guys read something new 365 days per year. Sometimes I have to rehash like I did this morning using Art’s column as the base.
I think blogs like mine for the most part simply repackage the news. I am not saying that is bad but it does mean that blogs for the most part are dependent on repackaging the news the local beat writers are in the field producing. In other words there are few foot soldiers in blogging.
If the beat writers are no longer there maybe there will be nothing left to repackage and the average blog will suffer. There are already rumblings out there that in the not too distant future the page links that blogs commonly use and any reproduction of copyrighted material may result in the blog or its parent being sued.
You may notice that I don’t use a lot of photo’s in this blog because of copyrights. For the most part it is now being ignored but don’t think for one second that attorneys of cash strapped newspapers are not analyzing the pirating of their copyrighted material. Right now everything is happening because of a gentlemen’s agreement. It won’t be long till some entity decides to make an example out of someone.
You mention USS Mariner and Lookout Landing and they are some of the finest examples available as far as sports blogs are concerned in the country. All of us would love to get paid more. I think revenue for my blog will be at around $2500 this year which is better than nothing. I look at it as a bonus because I would do it for free. Obviously because of the lack of income and future commitments I may not be able to continue it forever.
As far as SBN is concerned I can see a day when they charge for a membership that allows you to view and comment on all their blogs. I can also see them possible partnering with RIVALS which would allow blogs like mine access to their recruiting database.
I never wanted to do anything but casually comment on recruiting. It is the bread and butter over at Dawgman and since we are all good friends I would never want to compete head to head with them for subscribers. That being said talking to 17 year olds is something I don’t have time for and don’t really have an interest in. However that is where the money is in this business.
I look at this site as more of living room for dawgfans and an opportunity to discuss Husky sports without all the chatle that resides on the message boards. I read those boards but seldom participate because you have a group of 10-12 wise guys who spoil it for everyone else.
Yeah, that’s the thing John – blogs come in a variety of forms nowadays. Some are primarily about links. Some are a mix of links and original content. Some are primarily original content.
I think the blogs that will fare best will be the ones providing the most original content (such as USS Mariner & Lookout Landing), and I think your blog also does a good job of that. Dawgman works as more of a subscription newspaper model, and they appear to be quite successful.
What’s tough though is the relationship between sites – I appreciate the tough line you have to straddle in running this blog and not stepping on the toes of Dawgman, especially in terms of recruiting info. And if the beat writers start going away, you’ll find yourself in a tougher position – without those first-hand accounts of practices (gotta love Sark’s open door policy) from the beat-writers, you’ll have a harder time generating content analyzing the team in the off-season without leaning on what Fetters and the Dawgman guys report. I’m sure you get a lot of good info via back channels from people in town and close to the program, but at some point you may feel compelled to bring on board a local person to provide first-hand practice accounts and opinions. And then you run into the compensation issue – will they work for free, or little more than free? I’m sure it helps having the structure that SBN does, allowing all of us to contribute as well – that can help fill in gaps when you don’t have time or info to generate something new.
The biggest problem with newspapers going away is the lack of day-to-day in person coverage of our teams. Those of us that subscribe to Dawgman will be OK, because they generate enough revenue via subscription to afford to have enough staff to keep a beat on the team, but what happens to coverage of the M’s if/when the Times and TNT go away? Having to rely on MLB.com (aka “Pravda” as LL & USS Mariner cleverly and accurately describe it) for daily info would suck.
Where blogs beat the newspapers right now is in analysis, especially in baseball, though there are some good football ones as well (Field Gulls is an excellent Seahawks resource). But as noted previously, most of these guys work for free or for very little pay (not commensurate to their time invested), and in the case of baseball, some of those guys get tired of it or they’re good enough they get hired away by MLB franchises. Fortunately, there seems to be a continuing supply of fresh, smart, dedicated voices joining the online community to continue the excellent free discourse, but will that continue?
I have to admit I was surprised at how much free content from so many newspapers was placed online from the start. I suppose they looked at it as a loss-leader, or figured they could get enough ad revenue to make it work, or simply felt compelled to do it to stay competitive with rivals that were online free. Not too many newspapers had the clout to go to a subscription model like the NY Times.
Your points about improving mobile technology are interesting ones, and it will be fascinating to see how media adapts to new technology and a changing marketplace. Those of us that grew up with newspapers and magazines are witnessing a major shift in information distribution, and for some it’s hard to adapt.
The relationship I have with Dawgman is really solid and if I need content, photo’s, or info all I have to do is ask. I get a lot of good info from various sources and that will continue for a long time. The demise of the PI though is one less good source. Nathan Ware will possibly be coming back this spring on a limited basis and he brings a lot to the party. He has a desire to go to practice and do some analysis.
Providing free content and not going to a subscription model online was terrifically bad decision by newspapers. They were all sucked in just like Dawgman in their original incarnation. Everyone bought that the line that online ad revenue would pay for it all. It doesn’t even come close. If they all went subscription from the get go and tried to excelerate the technology to develop electronic readers the industry wouldn’t be crumbling.
by John Berkowitz on Mar 2, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
Chicago
Sort of off the topic, but you mentioned that you live in Chicago, I recently came to Chicago and was wondering if there were any good bars to catch a Husky game around here?
Who killed the newspaper?
The NYT tried to charge for access for select content of its newspaper a couple years back but had to give it up when they realized that they were losing more ad revenue than they were gaining in subscription fees.
Local papers need local advertising to thrive. But, as John’s article noted, more and more of that is going to ‘free’ sources like Craig’s List. Murdoch, once described the “classifieds” as the industry’s rivers of gold — but, as he more recently said, "Sometimes rivers dry up."
Newspapers of tomorrow may lose the ‘paper’ altogether. I’m not a journalist, but I wonder that by going completely on-line, how much cost could be saved instead of producing a “physical” product.
Which begs the question how many local papers does America really need? I rarely read the Times and PI…then only for sports…never news…that’s done by national and international sources.
Are newspapers really dying? Or is the distribution channel re-inventing itself?
Which may make specialist blogs — who fill a niche role — increasingly important. Can a good “’free” blog — one that’s manned by an expert and who’s drives in a lot of commentary — sustained itself by advertising? Advertisers may come in greater numbers if the see a lot of traffic from their respective target markets. That’s probably easier for blogs and web sites that specialize in a subject that’s national or even global in reach.
Maybe this is where we’ll see some of today’s newspaper columnists tomorrow?
Here’s a enlightening read from last month’s WSJ “A Reporter Faces the Naked Truth.”
It’s about the new job of a graduate of Columbia’s Journalism School and Pulitzer Prize nominee who was a foreign correspondent for 11 years in the Middle East.
He seems to have tired of dodging bullets. He now happily runs a upmarket strip club in Dallas (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123447503728679243.html).
I think there will always be a desire for reporting on a local scale that isn’t filled by national level media, and in some form or fashion that will continue. Seattle is lucky in that there are a couple of pretty good local free weekly’s providing another take on local issues and news (The Stranger & The Weekly), and online you can add Crosscut.com to the list. Not everyone will appreciate those sources given their slant to the left, but they do add to the discussion locally and they will likely help fill a void when the PI downsizes/disappears.
What potentially changes is the appearance of objectivity that traditional media has aspired to. That perception has changed over the years as the media has been constantly painted as liberal, but there still remains for most people some higher level of trust in the objectivity in traditional media over online sources unaffiliated with traditional media. That is primarily a function of generational bias – as you look at younger and younger age groups, ones that have grown up with online news and blogs and the like, you’ll find less of that bias towards traditional media for objectivity.
It’s the blessing and the curse of the information age – as more and more information and ability to communicate to the masses is available, the more choices you have for gathering information, and the harder it is to make determinations of what to believe, of what is trustworthy information.
Interesting analysis ...
…. however, you missed one very important point. Who is going to pay for all of those organic screen readers? The economics to consumers of your vision of the future are even worse than the economics facing the Seattle Times. Even if consumers are compelled to buy these devices en masse, it is no less than 10 years before they are widespread enough to have enough eyeballs as a local newspaper.
The Times will be viable for a long time. Monopolistic pricing power is a special thing and can cover up a lot of so-called “inefficiencies”. The Times provides a local service that no other entity will be able to cost-effectively replicate – not even Google. They can now amortize that infrastructure cost over a 30-35% larger install base. The math will work and will improve once advertisers start growing profits again.
"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.
Gecko
Who will pay?
The goal of the mass produced appliance is to come in under $300. The cost could be subsidized in much the same way cell phones are. When you subscribe to a news service for a certain amount of time they supply the reader to you for free or a reduced cost. If you do it in that manner they will see like hotcakes.
I wouldn’t be so sure of the long time financial viability of the Seattle Times. They have made some poor investments such as newspapers in Maine which are just killing them right now. Try selling a newspaper right now for what you bought it for or at all.
Advertising revenue continues to shrink even though they get a boost from not having to share revenue with the PI. The bottom line is that revenue isn’t enough to ensure the papers life.
You can make a case for monopolistic power but there are so many other outlets for advertising now that even if the Times is the only paper in town it won’t make a difference. If Hearst thought a one newspaper Seattle made sense they would not be abandoning the market.
by John Berkowitz on Mar 2, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
"one world sanitized corporate press release."
Aren’t we there already? I have a really hard time believing that both sides of stories are getting heard, or that the media really cares about integrity, being unbiased, or that horrilbe thing called “the truth”.
The “media” has turned into nothing more than a money making business that will say what ever is necessary to get more views and make more money. The truth no longer matters as long as money is being made. Maybe this will turn out to be a good thing.
"Bow Down to Washington"
"Kick the tires and light the fires!"
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
