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Pac 10 holes to fill in 2010

The Pac 10 proved itself in 2009 to be an elite conference with lots of parity for the first time since Pete Carroll's first season at USC. As for 2010 you can usually make a pretty good prediction on what is going to happen next year based on the previous years record, returning starters, and most importantly experience at quarterback.

If you are using that as a guide it is pretty easy to pick the Oregon Ducks as the favorite to win the conference in 2010. Overall the Pac 10 was young in 2009 and that was one reason for all the parity. Washington and Washington State like to point at youth for being a reason they will be better in 2009 but you can say that about any team in the conference next season excluding ASU and Arizona.

At first glance this is an early look at the holes that teams need to plug next season and what the reasonable expectation should be for 2010.

1. Oregon - Offense -  10 - Defense - 9

The Ducks go into 2010 as the favorite to win the conference. On offense they have everyone coming back except for TE Ed Dickson who will be adequately replaced by David Paulson. Defensively they need to replace half of their defensive line which is graduating but they do have the beef in reserve to do that. The defensive backfield will be young but a lot of those players saw considerable action this season.

The big key for Oregon is the return of Jeremiah Masoli at QB and his partner in crime LaMichael James. The Ducks should start next season in the top five nationally and be primed for a national championship run. If you are a duck fan you don't have too much in the immediate future to worry about.

2. Southern Cal - 7 Offense - Defense - 7

The Trojans lose three offensive lineman and their TE so their is some rebuilding to do up front. On defense they need to replace the entire secondary. This was a young USC team with plenty of talent on the roster which will only get better with time. The key to 2010 will be the continued development of QB Matt Barkley and the hope of some playmakers maturing around him on offense.

Pete Carroll has recruited well at USC but he didn't have any actual superstars on the roster in 2010 at key positions like he did in the past. The Trojans need a RB to emerge to compliment what Barkley will bring next season. Expect the improvement at QB to be there as usual. SC needs some serious playmakers if they are going to get past Oregon.

3. Oregon State - Offense -  8 - Defense - 9

On offense the Beavers need to replace Sean Canfield who played himself into a NFL draft pick this past season. The Rodgers brothers are scheduled to return but I could see James leaving early for the NFL. The Beavers lose only one starting offensive lineman. On defense the Beavers lose a LB and one of their CB's so they are in really good shape going into 2010 if Lyle Moevao can get a sixth year to come back and run the Beav offense.

If Moevao can get another season and James Rodgers comes back the Beavers will be very good on offense. If they don't come back I could see this team fall a couple of spots despite having an improved defense. You win with experience at QB in this league. If OSU is breaking in a new QB there will be some growing pains.

4. California - Offense - 9 - Defense - 5

The Bears only lose one offensive lineman and will likely lose RB Jahvid Best who is headed for the NFL early. No big deal because Shane Vereen is just as scary. Other than that the Bears return pretty intact on offense which means trouble for the rest of the Pac 10. On defense the Bears will loose 3/4 of their secondary, half of their LB corps and a DE so there is some rebuilding to be done.

I expect the Bears to do better on offense next season. Kevin Riley has to get better at QB with another year under Tedford. Defensively the Bears are rebuilding and that will ultimately keep them from winning the title. Tedford has recruited well over the years so he has some talent in the depth that is ready to move up to help fill holes on defense.

5. Stanford - Offense - 8 - Defense - 7

The Cardinal lose Heisman hopeful Toby Gerhart who is a huge part of their offense. He will be tough to replace. They also lose one OL and a TE so with the exception of Gerhart they return pretty much intact on offense. On defense they lose the two best players in their secondary in McNally and Sherman. They also lose monster NT Ekom Udofia and LB Will Powers.

Imagine Stanford without Toby Gerhart in 2009. How competitive would this team have been? Gerhart is a generational talent who the Cards won't be able to replace. Harbaugh continues to bring in solid recruiting classes so the Tree will be an improved team. The questions are will Andrew Luck be able to pick up enough of the slack in 2010 for the Stanford offense to be a factor? Can Stanford find an adequate replacement for Gerhart?

6. Washington Offense - 9 - Defense - 7

The Huskies lose Ossai and Homer from the offense. On defense they lose Butler and Savannah at LB plus Jones and Teo Nesheim on the DL. Jones was more of a spot starter because of injuries and the same can be said of Savannah who will petition for a 6th year.

The Huskies have some good returning at the offensive skill positions but they are in year one of rebuilding the offensive line because Sark couldn't find any to sign in year one. It will take at least two years of development until this highly rated OL class is ready to contribute. The only big question on offense is if Jake Locker will return. If he does UW should go to a bowl in 2010. If he doesn't it will set the program back a year or two.

Defensively Washington played a lot of young players in 2010. They also have a lot of talent coming in with the next class which should alleviate depth concerns. Washington will be improved on defense next season even though the losses of Teo Nesheim and Butler will be felt.

If Jake Locker doesn't come back the Huskies would fall to eighth in my early predictions. Not much of a fall but the difference between making or not making a bowl game in 2010 unless a miracle happens at QB.

7. Arizona - 5 Offense - Defense - 4

The Wildcats lose WR Terrell Turner, FB Chris Gronksowski, and most of their offensive line. On defense they lose half the defensive line and all three of their starting LB's. They also lose two starters in the secondary.

Thank god for Nick Foles and Nic Grigsby because this team is going to need them next year. Arizona and ASU are really the only team in the conference doing a major rebuild from an attrition standpoint next season. If TE Rob Gronkowski returns it will be another big plus.

8. UCLA - 8 Offense - Defense - 7

The Bruins lose FB Chane Moline, WR Terrance Austin, and TE Logan Paulsen on offense. Defensively they lose the Bosworth twins and Reggie Carter at the LB spots. Alteraun Verner is always leaving at CB. You can count on Rick Neuheisel to continue bringing in new talent from the recruiting trail. There are some losses on defense but the Bruins have the talent to fill the holes coming back or coming in. T

The big questions are on offense. Can the Bruins develop an adequate starting QB to go along with an adequate running game in 2010. It all starts on the offensive line. Has Rick built up enough talent and depth here to make a difference on the OL in 2010?

9. Arizona State - 2 Offense - Defense - 5

The Sun Devils are in trouble unless Dennis Erickson can plug some major holes immediately. On offense they lose three starting linemen along with the TE, WR's, RB, HB, and QB. As bad as they were on offense maybe starting over is a better idea. 

On defense they lose DE Dexter Davis, LB Travis Goethel, LB Mike Nixon, and 3/4's of the secondary. The defense was the only spark the Devils had last year so this is a major area of concern.

Erickson starts 2010 on the hot seat for the first time as a college coach. He really needs to hit the JV trail this off season to have a chance to get this team near .500 in 2010. I don't think he can get it done in the time he probably has left. Breaking in a new QB won't help matters.

10. Washington State - 8 - Offense - Defense 9

On offense the Cougars lose QB Kevin Lopina, RB Dwight Tardy, C Kenny Alfred, and TE Tony Thompson. On defense they lose LB Andy Mattingly and Safety Xavier Hicks.

The good news is that everyone who matters is coming back. The bad news is that really nobody on this roster matters at this point. WSU needs a massive influx of talent to climb out the basement. Wulff needs to put together a remarkable recruiting class this off season or he isn't going to make it out of Pullman alive next season.

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had no idea the whole conference was young

Ultimately it is good for the pac 10 as a whole, but it tempers my excitement for next year.

This could be the strongest conference in the nation.

For us to go bowling jake needs to return imo

by PandG on Dec 2, 2009 7:24 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Thanks...

…for the link! I like the size and athleticism. He doesn’t look like a burner but that’s probably because he’s tall and has a long stride.

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 9:04 AM PST up reply actions  

I think his speed is a bit deceptive as he has long legs and a long stride. You don’t see anyone catch him from behind. His lateral speed looks lacking to me as he looks stiff when moving side to side. Overall a good pick up.

by Snostrebla on Dec 2, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Lets hope that the NCAA grants Savannah’s petition. And then lets hope he can keep his hand in one piece.

by NeuroDawg on Dec 2, 2009 8:48 AM PST reply actions  

Listened to the Honks...

…Baird doesn’t think he’ll get the extra year, keep your fingers crossed.

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

WSU in the Basement

“WSU needs a massive influx of talent to climb out the basement. Wulff needs to put together a remarkable recruiting class this off season or he isn’t going to make it out of Pullman alive next season.”

Rated 51st in the Nation in Recruititng will keep WSU in the basement for years

The Tunnel is Hallowed and Sacred Ground

by bigdawgdaddy999 on Dec 2, 2009 9:44 AM PST reply actions  

wsu

It’s hard enough recruiting to Pullman but with this kind of instability it just makes it that much harder.

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Rankings don't necessarily indicate success

The Rose Bowl teams that Mike Price built, and the teams that won 10 games 3 straight years weren’t built on highly lauded recruiting classes. It’s about getting guys who fit your system and finding some under the radar guys. We won’t know whether or not Wulff has done that until his players mature.

by thecassino on Dec 2, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Good points!

But now with scholarship losses related to graduation it makes it more difficult. I think the NW does have a lot of talent and many of those guys are under the radar type guys.

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh Yeah...

…kind of forgot about that! Not good, not good at all!

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

and the other half are injured!

Glad I’m not a coug fan, future doesn’t look very bright.

"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"

by Lear Pilot on Dec 2, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think you have to be wary of putting too much stock in recruiting rankings. Oregon State seems to do just fine despite never ranking very high in recruiting.

If you listen to Cougs, they’ll tell you they think Wulff is doing quite well with his recruiting. I guess we’ll see in a few years…

by kirkd on Dec 2, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed Casino

But the bottom line in Pullman is that they just don’t have BCS talent over there. I was literally shocked that we whipped them 30-0. But how much does that score tell about us? I think this 09 Husky team was better then advertised (when healthy), but when some of our No.1s were forced out of action due to injury, our lack of depth really showed it’s ugly face.

Still before the Apple Cup we were a 4 win team and we blanked the Cougs 30-0. That’s got to tell you Wulff has no BCS talent in his program. Tuel might be the only guy. Yet I think it’s still too early to tell on Tuel. How many Pac 10 offers did he get? How many Mountain West and WAC offers did he get? Wulff needs talent in the worst way and I for one don’t see him getting it at Pullman.

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 2, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

They did have...

..a lot of injuries and I think they can develop their young players but how many years will that take and how many more seasons will Wulff last?

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Very Young League

It shows you how much traction you can make with a couple of strong recruiting classes because less kids are redshirting.

by John Berkowitz on Dec 2, 2009 10:25 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

On Cal's losses

On defense:

CB Syd’Quan Thompson – Huge loss.
DT Tyson Alualu – another huge loss. He single handedly commanded double and triple teams this year.
LB Devin Bishop – he started getting solid by the end of this year but it’s not a “big” loss. We had tons of people rotating in and out this year. JR Mike Mohammed is our prized asset at LB anyway
DB Marcus Ezeff – Famous for the touchback against Oregon in 07. Regressed heavily this year and eventually got replaced by SO Cattouse because Ezeff missed practices for a class he needed.
DB Brett Johnson – is a starter. A concern in losing
LB Eddie Young – see Bishop’s notes

On offense:

HB Jahvid Best – it’s not 100% but it’s possible. Huge loss but we have a very capable backup in Vereen, and Desarte Yarnway (RS FR next year) is the second coming of Marshawn Lynch
WR Nyan Boateng – a disappointment this year. His downfield blocking will be missed though.
WR Verran Tucker – has some clutch catches but is a bit inconsistent. Will be a notable loss
FB Bryan Holley – wasn’t the best this year we but we are lacking fullbacks on an offense that uses fullbacks a lot
OT Mike Tepper – 6 year veteran. Is solid but tends to make a lot of mistakes. We have a growing O-line so hopefully they keep getting better.

So basically we hope to see the offense get better (especially Riley and the offensive line) and while we have a couple of big losses on defense I think we’ll do fine. Will we challenge for the Pac-10 title? I don’t know and I refuse to guess but it won’t be bad.

In other words, Go Bears!

by royrules22 on Dec 2, 2009 11:50 AM PST reply actions  

on Stanford

I’m a huge Toby Gerhart fan, and he’s had an incredible season that should give him a good shot at the Heisman, but I’m not so sure that losing him will slow down Stanford’s offense all that much. When you look at what the backup RB’s have done this season, I’m not so sure there will be a big dropoff in the running game. Gerhart averaged 5.6 ypc; Taylor averaged 5.4, and Stewart averaged 6.3. This suggests to me that a lot of credit also goes to the Stanford OL and Marecic at FB, and as you note they only lose one OL.

Now granted, Gerhart’s style helps wear down defenses, and none of the backups are likely to be quite as durable as Gerhart – they’ll probably have to share the carries more than they’ve done the last two seasons when Gerhart has gotten most of the carries. And teams probably focus a little more on defending the pass when Gerhart is on the sidelines.

But I’m going on record as saying I don’t think Stanford’s running game is going to drop off in a big way.

by kirkd on Dec 2, 2009 2:00 PM PST reply actions  

It depends on Harbough

If Notre Dame wants him, look for Jimmy to make plans for a state of the art bathroom in his Golden Dome throne.

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 2, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Year 2 = Twice as good

I think Washington will be twice as good if not better then that by year 2 under Sark and the coaching staff. Keep in mind it took 1/3 of the offseason just to get aquainted with the new staff and head coach. Spring camp and Fall camp was learning the new system.

All that stuff is behind us where we just refine the system and work on player development. The key to great success next season depends largely on whether Jake returns. The rest of the league is hoping Jake goes pro and for very good reason.

Jake’s not done yet! WOOF!!!

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 2, 2009 4:40 PM PST reply actions  

Kelly

My gut keeps telling me Kelly is the clear choice. A guy who has shown he can turn around multiple programs. We’ll see. I think Notre Dame would love to hire Meyer but I don’t think Florida will let him go with out a serious fight. The kind of fight ND is above.

Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!

by dawgfan22 on Dec 2, 2009 9:21 PM PST reply actions  

Bob Stoops

Notre Dame wants to hire a defensive minded coach. That is where they struggle and that is where the future head coach’s expertise should be. I think Stoops is going to be a big time target. Stoops can recruit the hell out of defense and he can do it where he must recruit out of state (just like ND). Not to mention but Notre Dame’s primary recruiting states use to be Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio. ND can’t get those kids anymore so they are recruiting California, Texas, and dipping into Florida and Weis started recruiting the Hawaiian Islands. “Texas” is the key state along with California.

Notre Dame is going to be interested in hiring a coach that can bring an entire coaching staff with him and they will be handsomely paid. The Domers are getting desperate, just like Alabama was getting desperate when the dolled out top money for Saben. Expect if Stoops is remotely interested, ND will shell out more then Meyer gets and more then Saben gets. It’s that serious in South Bend.

If the Domers screw this one up, they might find themselve on the outside looking in.

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 3, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Oregon

Sad to say, but Oregon is probably going to be a very highly ranked team to start next year and have a pretty good shot at repeating the conference title and perhaps contend for a National Championship.

It’ll be bad enough for us Husky fans if the Ducks get their first Rose Bowl win in 93 years; it would be far, far worse if they ever win a National Championship, especially if it’s not a split title.

by kirkd on Dec 4, 2009 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

Let's not go too far

What makes Oregon tick is that they have an offense most defensive coordinators have yet to figue out. It’s all about spacing on the L.O.S. fellas, that’s it. You have to defend the entire length of the L.O.S. Stay in your assingment. If your assignment is A gap, you stay there regardless of flow. If your assignment is C gap you stay there regardless of flow. If your assignment is the alley you stay there regardless of flow.

First key: read O line- are they in pass protect or run block?
Hint: check the down arm. If the arm is weight bearing they are in run block. If arm is not weight bearing, chances are it’s pass protect. if O line explodes out of stance it’s run block, if the O line bucket steps it’s pass protect, and if you find the O line not putting much effort into you, then chances are they are setting up the screen.

Second key: there is no second key to Oregon’s spread. It’s all about your assignment. Kelly’s offense is all about misdirection and ball fake. You got to stay home and carry out your gap assignment.

Don’t move laterally to assist your buddy- if he is doing his job, then he’s in perfect position to make the stop. Never find yourself reading flow, chances are your vacant gap assignment will be the attacking point (spread option, Masoli keeps it and runs off tackle).

Oregon is not one of the elite teams in the country folks. They’ve got good players, but what you are seeing is an offensive machine that has been precisionally perfected. Masoli doen’t have a great arm and he’s not that fast. Masoli has a good arm for the routes Kelly prefers in his offense, same stuff Oklahoma and Florida runs. Masoli may appear fast but he’s not. He makes folks miss, he can juke his way through tremendous traffic, and if need be he’s got the leg power to run over you for a first down. Figure out how to stop Kelly’s offens and you can beat the zero. But they aren’t a great team. You are seeing an offense that has become virtually unstoppable, because nobody has yet to figure it out.

Ohio State is going to clobber the zero in Pasadena anyway. Dont’ fret…

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 4, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Another thing...

Oregon won’t have the cushiony schedule next season. They’ll have to deal with USC in L.A. and USC is going to be pretty good next season. Barkley as a true freshmen? Wait until this kid has a season behind him.

All I saw was purple

by crazidawg on Dec 4, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions  

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