Game 1: Wright State
by thecassino on Nov 13, 2009 2:16 PM PST
11 comments
Conference: Horizon League
2009 Record: 20-13, 12-6(t3-rd). No postseason.
Coach: Brad Brownell, 147-73, 64-33 at Wright State. 3 NCAA appearances, 1 at Wright State.
Key Players:
Todd Brown, 11.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, .398 3FG%,
Cory Copperwood: 9.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 11.9 OR%, 4.4 BLK%
Scouting Wright State:
Wright State was one of the slowest teams in the nation last year, averaging just 62.8 possessions per game, which was 306th in the nation. They slow the game down, play a deliberate pace and hang their hat on their defense, which was the 30th best in the nation last year. On defense they force a good amount of turnovers and force teams to take tough shots. They also will allow teams second chance points on offensive rebounds. Offensively they are a bit challenged. They don't make a high percentage of their shots or create second chances, and lack a true go-to guy, and playing without Vaughn Duggins hurts their depth (he's their best scorer, but suspended). They take care of the ball reasonably well though, and do a good job of getting to the free throw line where they hit 69% last season.
How to Beat Them:
Tempo is going to be the key. Games with more possessions favor more talented teams, and the Huskies definitely have that advantage. If the point guards push the tempo on offense and get out into transition, then apply pressure on defense and create turnovers UW should have no trouble creating a cushion early in this game. Venoy Overton's play is going to be key, because running the transition offense and playing full court defense are his specialties. The Huskies have to take advantage of their superior athletes and get the ball inside to score. If the guards fall in love with the perimeter shot it could get ugly.
Prediction:
Wright State isn't a cupcake. They return basically everybody from a team that was pretty good last year. Because of their style and the fact that they're a senior heavy team, they're not really an ideal opponent to open up against, especially with the Huskies not yet having an established shooter. If the Raiders were at full strength, I'd expect this to be a good game, but unfortunately without Duggins (a first team All Horizon selection) and John David Gardner (injured and the team's best passer) they probably don't have the depth to play with the Huskies for all 40 minutes. It might stick close for the first half, but look for UW to pull away in the second half. The Dawgs should have no trouble winning by double digits in this one.
UW 67 - WSU 52 (The first of many victories over a WSU this year!)
Vegas: UW -15 (I promise, I picked my score before I looked up the spread)
Viewing: 7:00* FSN NW, Bank of America Arena
*Start time approximate, depending on the finish of the Belmont vs. Portland State game preceeding it.
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Sometime during this coming week I think I'll write a primer on tempo free statistics.
But until then, to understand a lot of what I’ll be talking about if you aren’t already familiar with them:
The game of college basketball has teams that play wildly different styles. One need not look outside the borders of the state of Washington to see this in recent years. The Huskies run, the Cougs (in the past) slowed it down. Because of that, per game stats can be misleading. You might look at Brown’s and Copperwood’s numbers and not be impressed, but when you consider how slowly Wright State plays they’re pretty good. If they played at the pace of the Huskies they’d likely both be averaging points in the teens. For Copperwood, his OR% his offensive rebounding percentage and 11.9 is very high. For comparison, Jon Brockman last year was 9th in the nation at 15.6, and Quincy Pondexter was in the top 200 at 11.1. His 4.4 BLK% (block percentage) is good as well, but not amazing. We’ll be looking at stats like Offensive Rating, True Shooting , Effective FG and others as the season goes on.
Post game analysis will hinge on the “4 Factors of Winning”:
eFG% (How well you shot the ball)
Turnover % (Wasted possessions)
OR% (Extra possessions)
Free Throw Rate (“Bonus” points)
I'm excited!
I’ve been learning about advanced baseball and football stats for the last few years but basketball analysis is something I know almost nothing about yet, so I’m looking forward to following this blog throughout the season to learn some more. Go Dawgs!
I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.
Where is Wright State? Canada?
We’d better be able to spot up for the trey this year. That opened everything up last season. If we can’t hit from the perimeter, opposing defenses will begin to constantly sag into the lane and force us to beat them from the perimeter.
Perimeter shooting will be key this season- no question.
All I saw was purple
ET should be our primary long range threat, but it would be highly advantageous if guys like Isaiah, Gaddy & Pondexter can also become legitimate threats beyond the stripe. If Isaiah can start knocking down some open 3’s, that’d make him an elite offensive player because he’s already so good getting to the rack. It would also be nice to see him raise his FT shooting to 75% or better given how often he’s at the stripe.
People have been saying that Justin Holiday really worked on his 3s this offseason.
Which would be huge.
Exactly...
You see we’ve got big bodies to throw down in the low post and we’ve got all sorts of guys that can drive, penetrate, and finish in the lane. But if we can’t hit from outside then defenses will begin to sag in the lane and try to take that away from us. To keep those lanes open, we have to show we can consistently hit from outside.
The play of Turner and Holiday could be BIG this season.
All I saw was purple
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