Picking the Pac - Week Eight
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 7:15 AM PDT
84 comments
It is week eight in the Pac 10 and things are starting to get pretty serious. Almost anyone can beat anyone in the conference this year.
Arizona State at Stanford
What do we know about these two teams going in? ASU has one of the toughest and dirtiest defenses in the Pac 10. They have consistently stopped the run all season. Stanford lives by the power running game. Even though Andrew Luck is talented he really needs the support of the running game to make things happen. Nobody has really stopped Toby Gerhart this season but if you hold him to around 100 yards you can beat Stanford. ASU's offense is terrible and they can't get caught up in a track meet like Stanford had with Arizona last weekend and stay in the game.
Stanford by 3
Oregon State at USC
Are the Trojans a one loss contender for the national title? If they are they better take care of business at home against Oregon State. The Beavers, in fact, have beaten USC twice in the past three years, both times in Corvallis. But in Los Angeles, it's a different story. OSU hasn't beaten USC there since 1960.
USC by 7
UCLA at Arizona
Arizona stayed in the race by erasing the bitter taste of losing a game they should have won against Washington by outlasting Stanford in another thriller. This weeke they faced the beat up an offensively inept Bruins at home. UCLA isn't playing well right now. They haven't been able to solve the problems on offense and the defense had a surprisingly poor showing against California last week.
Arizona by 14
Washington State at California
My friend Nuss over at Coug Center insists that the Cougars will hold the Golden Bears to 35 points or less. Film from last weeks contest against UCLA suggest that Cal will score at will against WSU.
Cal by 24
Oregon at Washington
Can you say trap game?
Washington has lost five straight to Washington and there isn't a single player on the Oregon roster who has lost to Washington or has even seen them be competitive against their program. The Ducks are coming off a bye week after a less than effective game by their offense against woeful UCLA. Masoli may be the starter on Saturday but exactly how mobile will he be when contact starts?
Oregon is thinking Rose Bowl right now. Who can blame them they are 3-0 in conference and in control of their own destiny. The path to Pasadena runs directly through Eugene where the Ducks will face off against USC next weekend. Could the Ducks be looking ahead to the Trojans? I think they might. Five straight decisive wins have put a bucket of ice cold water on the rivarly from an Oregon perspective.
Chip Kelly: "We don't put any more stock in this game than another and by that I don't mean to diminish it, but we put everything we have into every game. We haven't done anything different in terms of our approach. It's a league game, it's on the road, and that's enough to get our players up and excited for practice.''
On paper Oregon should win this game. They have more talent, speed, and depth than Washington has. We have said that about every opponent but Idaho this season and will likely keep saying it till we play UCLA and WSU. The Ducks have been solid on defense and a speedy and blitzing 3-4 will challenge the Washington offensive line. It will also create opportunities for Jake Locker to create some plays. Oregon hasn't been challenged by a QB with the talent of Locker this season.
This game is going to be decided in the fourth quarter. It doesn't matter who starts at QB for Oregon. They will run the same offense and they are going to put some points on the board. Washington needs some turnovers and a better performance from their special teams this week to win the game. Defensively the Huskies need to tackle better because if they tackle the way they did against ASU the Ducks are going to burn them for big plays.
When the season started I had this game marked down as a loss. After the first three games I felt Washington could handle Oregon at home. After the Cal game which blew me away I had it back firmly in the loss column. What changes my mind this week is the potential trap situation, the home field advantage, anger by Washington, Jake Locker, and of course playing against a QB that will be less mobile than the last time he suited up.
This game will be bitterly fought and won't be decided till the last play of the game when Erik Folk puts one through the uprights from 42 yards out!
Washington by 3
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It'll be interesting...
…to see how oregon’s offense changes based on Massoli’s injury. I don’t know how many people know how bad it is or isn’t. I don’t think you want him running too much if the sprain is bad. He’ll take a lot of contact in that spread option offense. The DAWGS will be swarming to the football and gang tackling. Jake Locker needs to inspire his troops to play hard on every snap, he’s one of the best QBs in the Pac and the fastest. His troops need to give him everything they got and everyone doing their job makes the engine go. GO DAWGS!!
Make Husky Stadium ROCK DAWGfans!! GO DAWGS!!
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
Trap Game?
Dream on dogs, unlike uw’s staff, the DUCKS staff is loaded with consistency, i.e. coaches who have lived through many border wars with uw.
They won’t allow these guys to look past this game.
Dogs are going down hard! (for the 6th time in a row, ouch!!!)
by wheatonisgonnascore on Oct 22, 2009 8:36 AM PDT reply actions
I still think it is funny that the UW fanbase is considered the "arrogant" bunch.
because I have seen a ton of these types of posts coming from the other side.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Its kinda hard not to sound arrogant...
when you have completely destroyed UW several years in a row.
I agree...
Here is to a possible come uppance on Saturday!
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree ... I just think it is funny that we are the one accused of being so
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
There is old money arrogance and I just won the lotto arrogance.
You guys tend to be on the scratch ticket side of the food chain….just sayin.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not the only prognosticator who feels this way. A number of nationally known odds guys are going with Washington in this one.
The game isn’t played on the message boards or in the casino…but there are more than a few folks out there that think this has the potential of being a trap game for Oregon.
With USC coming to Eugene next week, health problems at QB, and playing in always tough Husky Stadium the red flag has been raised for this game.
You want a little clue on the mentality South of the border…listen to sports talk radio in Portland….you would think the USC game was happening this weekend.
Upset
Many of the nationally know odd guys also went with UCLA over Oregon last week and ND over USC. And just because the radio guys(who have nothing to do with the team) are talking about the USC game, doesn’t mean the players are talking about it. Chip will not allow his players to lose focus, get ready cause the pain train is coming to town!
Well....
I picked Oregon over UCLA. How well did Oregon actually do on the road against a team that isn’t better than the one they will face this week? Offensively there is no comparison between UW and UCLA.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Defensively...
there is no comparison between UCLA and UW. Price, Verner, Moore, their middle linebacker, and the bosworth brothers. You guys are 9th in the Pac – 10 against the rush.
Defensively II
I think our trio of linebackers are better…with the exception of Price are DL is better. Where Washington has problems is in the secondary. The loss of safety Justin Glenn has hurt the last two weeks.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Bison
Tell me exactly what you know about our LB’s other than the fact they wear purple uniforms….two have them have been Pac 10 player sof the week…both Foster and Butler will be first or second team all Pac 10 this season.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
The fact is that tackles...
sometime mean that your defense has been on the field too long. We’ve had multiple games where no one has over 5 tackles. Matthews, Paysinger, and Pleasant might be one of the top 2 linebacking units in the Pac-10.
I like Savannah too...
but would you rate them high in physicality or do they have side to side speed…I don’t see more of the former and not the latter.
you might be the only one
Under winter skies
We stand glorious
And with Oden on our side
We are victorious
Elisara
He is day to day as they as they say at Oregon…
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
From me or Bison
You are guys with the smoke prescription law.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah - but you guys didn't really do much against the UCLA defense.
… that third quarter was flukey and had little to do with your offense.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
I concede...
our offense was not great. However, after the 5 minute meltdown, which by the way, was because of some great talent on the part of Barner, Jackson III, and Maehl, we shut it down offensively. Costa threw the ball 17 times in that game and most of it came early in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we threw the ball 4 times after that point. Game management, baby, because it was apparent that UCLA could do nothing against our defense.
I agree - you guys earned that win and did what you needed to do.
… but let’s not say that your O somehow was impressive against the UCLA D. It was not.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Nobody said that though...???
We just said you’re worse, so we should do better even with Costa. Of course, a little bird told me there is some good wrinkles to the offense that will be on display this weekend.
yes it is ...
… but our LBs are better than theirs. They have the premier d-line in the Pac 10 and their secondary is pretty good. Ours not so much.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Why is their linebacking corp not as good...
because your guys have more tackles…bend but don’t break means more tackles to go around. When you give up 6 yards per play the defense has to make a lot of tackles.
Chip will not allow his players to lose focus- Oh Really?
Where was the focus in Boise, Idaho duck77? The team came out overconfident and it bit them on the buttocks. Meanwhile your beloved Chipper sounded arrogant in his halftime press talk even though the zeros had not gotten a 1st down yet.
… and do I even have to bring up the where was the focus of Blount that night? “Not allow” is a really silly statement anymore about a coach. Pete Carroll is the best in the business yet every season they’ve dropped games that they are suppose to win. This season- Washington. Last season- Oregon State. The season before- Stanford. I’m quite sure losing the Washington, Oregon State, and Stanford were not allowed by Pete Carroll either- but they did happen.
You talk of the Chipper like he’s Joe freakin’ Paterno or somthing. Fella, umm … he’s a first year head coach. Get off the “will not allow” thing until Chipper does something great.
All I saw was purple
TRAP GAME...
is a game you lose but should’ve won 9 out of 10 times. No one would be surprised if we lost…just really dissapointed. After beating ’SC and Arizona, no one is going to look at this as a trap game. USC losing to a OSU before coming to Eugene, as a 20.5 point favorite, is a trap game.
USC will not lose again this season
Mark it down.
All I saw was purple
Interesting comments all week, johnb from all.
I know the game will be much more competitive than the last 5 under our former incompetents. Breaks and luck are going to play a major role in the end result. Can good coaching and enthusiasm make up for 4 years of poor off season conditioning and even worse recruiting. I hope so.
One thing about Oregon
As we saw when they played UCLA they can absolutely explode when another team starts making mistakes and put the game away in under five minutes. Washington can’t afford the breakdowns they had against Arizona and ASU. Oregon is a much better team. When I say team I mean all three components playing together.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
UCLA's woeful D...
…has 5 players on the pre-season All-American watch list – nearly half the starting defense. How many does UW have? We’ll have to wait until the Dogs play UCLA to find out, but I’m not concerned with the offensive output of a squad going against a solid UCLA defense with a first time starting QB who has had three surgeries on the same knee. UO still put up yardage. Masoli is starting which means he is nearly 100% – too much depth at QB to start him if he’s not. UW defense is nowhere near as good as UCLA’s. Oregon is going to up points. On the other side of the ball UW is in trouble. The Oregon D outplayed USC’s against the two common opponents (Cal & WSU). UW scored 16 on USC. No way UW scores more than that against UO. It’s going to be a long day for the purple faithful. My guess is you will enjoy the first half. Oregon 31 – Washington 10.
Not really concerned about the defense to tell you the truth
We have played bend and not break all season and that will be the case on Saturday. UO will get their yards on Saturday…don’t worry about it…the question is how many of those potential 7’s will end up being 3’s? The red zone stats against better offensive teams than Oregon do not lie.
Masoli isn’t anywhere close to being 100% and they won’t announce a starter till game time.
You haven’t played anyone close to the caliber of Jake Locker. Your young corners haven’t been tested yet by a QB like him. I respect Oregon’s D but I respect LSU’s, USC, and ASU’s more. I would say your D is on a par with Arizona right now.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
John...
we really don’t make a lot of trips to the redzone. Our offense scores on big explosion plays.
Bison
I realize that….Our defense tend to keep most everyhing in front of them to avoid that….there was of course that ugly exception against ASU last week. can’t deny that didn’t happen.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
That is a great point – Oregon has an explosive offense. I think the UW’s best shot on defense is to generate some turnovers and keep playing the zone defense in the secondary – going man to man, I don’t think we have enough athleticism at this time to keep up with Oregon. But with a disciplined zone, our LB’s and DB’s may be able to limit the big plays, likely at the expense of giving up consistent 5-8 yard gains.
If the Huskies can force a couple of INT’s and strip a couple fumbles away from the Ducks, that may be enough to slow down Oregon and give our offense enough extra shots to give us a chance at winning. And generating turnovers is one of the few things our defense has done above average this year.
YES - the UCLA D is GOOD... and UO did NOTHING against that D
… you guys scored one offensive TD against them on a very short field. Other than that, you had one or two long runs, a FG and an abysmal 4/14 on third downs. The fact that you won that game had nothing to do w/ your offense.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
trap game?
For the record…..
Ducks are 10 point favorite.
I’d say prognosticators see it a little differently.
by wheatonisgonnascore on Oct 22, 2009 9:36 AM PDT reply actions
For the record..
The casino’s have taken the game down because of the rise in point spread….the oddsmakers set it at 5.5 which is pretty accurate. The euphoria of Masoli starting put a ton of money Oregon’s way.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions
If I was betting
I would load up on Washington with Oregon favored by 10.
Gambler move the line…odds makers set it. They liked 5.5 or below.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Things change by the end of the week...
no one knew if Masoli was going to play…now that looks more certain the money is going Oregon’s direction.
I actually got a bet in on UO at 5.5
Then I got one on the Dawgs at 10 and I threw a little bet on the Dawgs straight up at +340 as well.
I think 6-7 is about right for this game, I don’t see a UW win, but I see an overvalued (by bettors) UO team that looks pretty at #11.
by B Money on Oct 22, 2009 11:39 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
yikes
You actually bet against the dawgs?! I’ve got as big of a gambling problem as anyone I know —but I’ve never, ever, wagered against “us”.
I try and bet with my head and never with my heart...
I started gambling 12 years ago (when I was 12), and I’ve become quite good at it…to the point where I can supplement my income by an extra 10%.
The way I figure, if I win the UO bet and the UW bets I’ll use the proceeds to buy some tickets to the Cal game. I just don’t have a good feeling about Saturday, I can’t really lose anyway you look at it…but I certainly would give up my wagers on UO for the Dawgs to win.
The game will be OVER at half time.
I’m not trying to be arrogant here. Sark has done a wonderful job with these young men. But believe me, when you see them up against these Ducks, who are not boastful, I think you will appreciate the strength, dedication and discipline you have come up against.
I’m not trying to be arrogant here
Duck quote of the week!
by John Berkowitz on Oct 23, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
With all due respect
Boise was our trap game. That ship has sailed. Also, you usually don’t get trapped in rivalry games, and that you beat USC makes it even less likely as you have their full attention.
Now, as far as this “we’ll hold you to field goals” nonsense. Oregon is #2 in the conference in scoring offense. Washington is #9 in scoring defense. On the reverse, Oregon is #3 in scoring defense, Washington is #8 in scoring offense. That the Huskies are magically going to outscore us and hold us to tons of field goals just doesn’t have any statistically based merit. Because, based on the stats, only Washington State has done a worse job of holding teams to field goals than Washington.
And to say Washington’s defense is better than UCLA’s is beyond silly. Again, ZERO stats to back that up.
The national pundits need some kind of an upset pick every week. Oregon/Washington seems like a good choice on the surface. Its on the road right before we play USC, and UW already has trapped one good team this year. But its that USC game, combined with the rivalry element and the Boise State loss that come together to make this a horrible trap game pick. Not to mention, USC had a terrible gameplan and a backup quarterback making his first start in that game. Our gameplan—45 carries and a ton of bubble screens, is exactly how to attack Washington’s soft and shallow defense. By the fourth quarter, they’ll be plenty worn out.
Sure, Oregon could lose this game. UW is much better than they have been in the past. But the idea that it would be because of loss of focus or because you have an outstanding defense is asinine. If we lose this game, it will be because we turned the ball over and Jake Locker made some great plays. And while, if this game were played ten times, it might happen once or twice, it certainly isn’t the most plausible scenario. Most of the time, the better team wins.
--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog
by David Piper on Oct 22, 2009 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
well
From what I understand yoy don’t really think it is much of a rivarly any more. Seems to me like it just like any game you have left on the schedule.
I don’t remember saying UW’s offense was better than UCLA’s overall…however stats say we are much better in the red zone. The game is won in the red zone.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Here’s the thing – the stats have clearly favored every opponent UW has had this year with the exception of Idaho, but we’ve kept all but one game close and won 3 of them.
Oregon’s clown-stomping of Cal was very impressive, and you guys did what good teams do to bad teams against WSU. On the other hand, the win against Purdue was lackluster, and the loss against Boise was pretty ugly. I know I know, Oregon isn’t the same team now. That may be the case. But those were the same players and the same coaching staff, and while they’ve rallied big-time, it’s certainly possible there’s another let-down possible in that program.
And as much as fans and the coaching staff insist that the Duck players aren’t looking past the UW to the presumed showdown with USC the following week, you can’t know for sure what the mood is of the players. These are 18-22 year old kids, and so far all they’ve known is beating the UW rather easily.
I would think that the Ducks will be fired up to take care of business. But you just don’t know for sure.
You guys are great...
I mean it sincerely…it has been great having all the Duck fans here this week.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Trap Game ...
… it is a silly debate we are having. But, we all know it is an game of momentum and emotion. The sense that there might be a let down on the road against a disrespected opponent is what cost USC the game and is the reason that both Phil Steele and Ted Miller are picking the upset.
This doesn’t mean that this will happen … it just means that there is a general sense that UO might not have the right mindset in place. Ted Miller, BTW, has been the biggest UO pimp all season, so this is a surprise.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
USC does that...
we tend to beat the teams we should.
’07 – Cal, Arizona when dixon went down, UCLA same story, Oregon State severely undermanned.
Last year – lost to BSU with no quarterback, Cal and USC
This year – lot to BSU on the road with them favored
I really don’t remember the last time we fell into the proverbial trap game.
Combined Pac-10 opponent records
Oregon has played Cal, WSU, and UCLA. Combined Pac-10 conference record of 1-9
Washington has played USC, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State. Combined Pac-10 conference record of 9-5
If you throw out the games against Oregon/Washington it’s 1-6 and 7-3 respectively. Oregon struggled in all three of their non-conference games and against UCLA (the Bruins imploded in the 2nd half, that was obvious to anyone that watched that game). I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge of where Oregon is yet in the Pac-10 race. The offense is improving and the defense is good, but how good and how much improvement is still unproven. On the other hand, Washington has played 4 of the top 6 teams in the current standings but none of the bottom 3. Through 7 games it is obvious that Washington plays most teams tough but has issues preventing long drives and generating consistent offense.
WAZZU is bad...
but we really don’t know how CAL and UCLA will fall out in the Pac-10 race. UCLA could definitely beat a few teams in the Pac-10 including you guys.
Again...
we played Cal when they were the #6 team in the country and Best was lauded as a heisman candidate. UCLA was 3-1.
BSU BSU BSU
When you put together a team that can win the WAC….get back to me.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
John,
BSU is head and shoulders above any other WAC team. We all get it – you think they aren’t that good.
I don't think they are good enough to beat the Pac 10 champ...
Think about that one for a few moments.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
agreed
we all know that Cal is better than what they showed against UO and USC.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
" I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge of where Oregon is yet in the Pac-10 race."
Even I know where Oregon is in the PAC -10 race, Joe. They are in first place. I saw it in the paper.
LOL
Oregon is #1 until someone knocks the battery off their shoulder.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 23, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Donald
He is getting fired up in his own way for the game.
You ahve to admire passion no matter how misdirected it is.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 23, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Washington was in first after beating USC
Should we have run around to opponent blogs after that game screaming about how we were in first place and that it was an indication of how much better we were than everyone else? You’ve played the bottom 3 teams in the Pac-10, that would be like the Mariners sweeping Oakland to open the season and declaring themselves the AL West champs.
The difference between Huskies and Ducks
We have been there…not recently…but plenty of times…in fact most of our adult lives.
They have never quite gotten there so every time they get close they scream look at me, look at me, you suck!
They then proceed to blow it like they are going to do on Saturday and slink back to their vans down by the river.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 23, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
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