Picking the Pac - Week 7
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 7:01 AM PDT
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PrintWeek seven in the Pac 10.
WSU, Oregon, and Oregon State have the week off.
Southern California at Notre Dame
This is the big game of the week nationally because of a tradition that goes back to the days of Knute Rockne. The Irish had no problem removing of Catholic rival Boston college from the schedule after a six game losing streak but getting rid of USC isn't so easy. You have all those televisions that NBC loves. You would think NBC would love all those TV sets back in New England too.
The Irish and Trojans have a common opponent in Washington. The Huskies beat the Trojans in Seattle and were robbed of a certain victory by the officials in South Bend. the Irish faithful seem to think that because they stole a victory over Washington they can do the same thing to USC because Washington of course beat the Trojans.
As Lee Corso says every weekend not so fast! USC is superior to the Irish at about every position and they have their QB back healthy and with experience. I am predicting that USC will treat the Irish like California. the Trojans are getting better every week while the Irish are just holding on.
USC by 17
California at UCLA
This is the moment of truth for these two football programs. Cal is almost out of it after suddering two conference losses. The Bruins on the other hand also have too lossed and are fighting to keep alive this week. If Cal loses to UCLA their season is over and they are at the bottom of the conference with WSU which was unthinkable only three weeks ago.
I have examined this game pretty close and I like the Bruins because of their defense. The prescription for beating Cal is loading the line of scrimmage and taking Jahvid Best out of the game. The Bruins can do that without worrying too much about Kevin Riley. UCLa has one of the better defensive units in the conference.
The problem with the Bruins is they are as inept on offense as ASU is. They can give up points quickly like we saw in the third quarter of last weeks game against Oregon. They don't have a Jake Locker that can rally them back. Once the Bruins are two TD's behind they are toast.
UCLA has a better defense than Cal and that should be enoug to win the game because if UCLA is going to get something going this year a good bet would be against a questionable Bears defense.
UCLA by 3
Stanford at Arizona
This is another big game. Both team have one loss in conference and whoever loses gets the kiss of death of having two. I like the way Arizona matches up with Stanford. They have a defense that can control the one dimensional Stanford offense. Offensively Nick Foles continues to get better every week. If the Cardinal plays the same way they did against OSU they could be in for a long day.
The big equallizer in this is Arizona isn't explosive or well coached. The key to beating Stanford is getting ahead of them by a couple of scores early which takes them out of their power running game. The Tree doesn't play well from behind. I think Andrew Luck will develop into an All Pac 10 QB but when the game is on his frosh shoulders the Tree struggles.
I think Arizona bounces back at hime and wins a close one which would give the Huskies control of their destiny in the Pac 10 if they keep winning.
Arizona by 3
Washington at Arizona State
This is one of these games on the schedule the Huskies need to win. From a strictly statisitical standpoint the Sun Devils should kill us on the road. Past statistics don't win football games and when I look closely at ASU the key to beating them is having a plus turnover ratio. The Devils have an offense built to make mistakes and give up points. On the other hand they have a defense that can make up for it if you play sloppy. They av eup six turnovers against WSU and it didn't hinder them in the least.
Washington needs to get out to an early lead an not make mistakes to win this game. Fortunately we have the type of offense led by Jake Locker that can get that done. ASU isn't easy to rush on and they blit quite a bit. That opens up opportunities for Washington to get some quick early scores long. It also gives Jake the latitude to step up in the rush and get into the secondary easliy. As we saw last week against Arizona once he gets in the secondary he is gone because he is likely the fastest player on the field.
Dennis Erickson is no fool and he will try to pick Washington apart with a high percentage short passing game. He has the players on the outside to make the bubble screen work all day. Washington will have a couple of pieces back this week on defense so Holt needs to counter that early and take it away from them. A real plus for UW is that Danny Sullivan is the QB. He makes mistakes, isn't very mobile, and picking up a couple of interceptions will be key in cementing the first road victory of the year.
Washington by 3
Conference Notes
Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli is back at practice but his movement is restricted. The medical staff doesn't want him moving side to side because of a knee injury he suffered against WSU. Masoli said he had an MRI last week and it didn't show anything. Despite that he says he isn't sure if he will be ready for the Washington game on October 24th. He describes the injury as day to day. He says he wakes up with the knee pretty stiff in the morning at this point. With two weeks to go his availability for the UW is too early to call.
USC's defense got a big boost this week with the return of DE Armond Armstead. The 6-foot-5 Armstead was a starting defensive end before he suffered a broken bone in his left foot during training camp.
John Wilner is calling the Cal/UCLA clash a watershed moment for Cal coach Jeff Tedford. Two years ago, they zoomed to a 5-0 start and were on the brink of a No. 1 ranking before splitting apart at the seams. They lost six of their final seven regular-season games and spent the winter searching for answers. Cal is trying to avoid a repeat of that collapse.
Oregon State sophomore running back Jacquizz Rodgers has been named this week’s Pac-10 Conference Offensive Player of the Week, league commissioner Larry Scott announced Monday. Rodgers, from Richmond, Texas, accounted for 271 all-purpose yards, tied for the third-highest total in school history, as the Beavers defeated Pac-10 Conference leading Stanford 38-28 last Saturday at Reser Stadium.
ASU Tight end Stanley Malamala suffered a broken jaw during the Washington State game but continued to play. He is expected out for six weeks and will have a plate wired into his jaw so it heals properly.
ASU Kicker Thomas Weber (groin) will miss a fifth straight game. Bobby Wenzig, who missed an extra point and had another blocked, could be challenged this week by two walk-ons.
ASU Offensive Guard Zach Schlink (knee) participated in Tuesday's practice, but on a limited basis. Coach Dennis Erickson said it's still doubtful Schlink will play Saturday.
ASU Omar Bolden (knee) didn't practice yesterday, but Erickson said he expects him to play on Saturday.
ASU WR Kyle Williams is limited in practice because a hamstring injury that kept him out against Oregon State.
Starting ASU flanker Chris McGaha missed a second consecutive practice due to the flu but might be well enough to play on Saturday. To improve depth at wide receiver, true freshman Jamal Miles is giving up his redshirt and will play this week.
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UW vs ASU
UW by 10
I am going out on a limb and saying its not even close. At what point will be take a game and just play perfect football on all levels for 4 quarters? My answer is this week. Every week there is something that kills us whether its giving up 1000 yards rushing to Stanford, or 1000 yards passing to ND and Arizona, or fumbling Punts, or throwing INT’s for TD’s, or etc…When will we play PERFECT football!!! At some point this team will understand that they are 3-3, 2-1 in the Pac 10 and they can control their own destiny. Call me crazy, stupid, over enthusiastic, drunk on the Purple Kool-Aid, but I have a feeling we whoop up on ASU. If there was ever a team to beat this is it.
ASU’s offense is up there with Camp Hill High School’s and their Def can only be on the field for so long before they fall apart. I am predicting a game plan predicated on running the football and short passes to get this Def tired since we know their Offense is very sub par. Look for a lot of Blitzes to get to Sullivan and his cement filled cleats and look for him to make a lot of mistakes in the face of adversity.
I am picking Trufant and Butler to be the players of the game on Def…(Trufant with 1-2 int’s and Butler with 10+ tackles, INT and/or Forced Fumble, Fumble Recovery) and Polk to be offensive player of the game. As long as his shoulder holds up I think you will see him get John B approved 25 carries and a grind’em out 100+ yards, maybe a TD…I don’t know.
Either way, feel free to rip my prediction to shreds but this is what my psychic told me.
Go DAWGS!!!!
ASU
I think ASU has one of the better defenses in the conference if not the country. They have a real knack for taking the ball away and making a big play.
Folks need to understand that Washington will be the underdog in five of the six remaining games this season. A 1-2 OOC record doesn’t really leave you with much margin for error so this is a game UW needs to win. Get this one out of the way and they should be able to find the other two victories they need to become bowl eligible.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
A darn near must win
lose, and the road gets very hard to pave the way to a bowl. I hate to keep putting the load on Jake’s sholders, but it is what it is. The D needs to step up and not bend near as much, and knock Sullivan down a few times. I was surprised at all the injuries ASU has, looks as bad as us. Jake again is the wild card. I think we win by aTD.
One thing you pointed out, DE is not a dummy. ASU will have a game plan to take the short passes, and try and contain JL. WRs, C Polk and OL need to help the savior.
Jake's shoulders
I have to agree…this is setting up as another game where we are going to depend on Jake’s dual threat tools. One thing that we have to concentrate on is turnovers. The UW defense has scored two game in a row. We need more of that.
One thing that could really tilt the game in Washington’s favor is the health of the ASU WR’s. McGaha has the flu and Williams is banged up.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
The D has scored three games in a row. Backwards passes against both Stanford and ND and the Butler interception last week.
Here’s hoping they make it four in a row!
one more thought
we played these guys last year even through almost 3 qtrs until the D got gassed and gave up 23 unanswered points. Granted it was last years personnel, but this years team is in much better physical condition, and the QBs for both teams have changed. Sullivan for Carpenter (minus) Locker for Fouch (plus). Plus we have a semblance of a running game this year versus gettting outrushed by 130 yds (182-52).
If Jake can finally put a touch on his deep throws
This could be a big offensive day for the Dawgs. We’ve been easy to gameplan against so far without the threat of a deep ball. Yet we’ve still managed a quality offense.
If we can read the bubble screen, stuff some runs and Jake can stretch the field we’re in great shape.
We’ve proven that we can win shootouts, and I expect this could end up the same way.
by B Money on Oct 15, 2009 9:12 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Deep Ball
I think a huge key is the deep ball early. Connect on a couple of those and ASU is playing from behind and they don’t do that very well. In ASU’s two losses they fell behind early.
quandry
While some are worried about any bowl the rest are talking Rose Bowl as in The News Tribune (Tacoma) this morning. Which way do you stretch?
One defender on two wideouts was a disaster and almost a sure twenty yard gain as the second wide receiver blocks the defender and the pass recipient has an open field.
Oh my gracious Lord, please no more prevent defense, rushing three. It almost cost Boise State a win last night making a close game out of what should have been an easy win. Why do coaches do it at all levels?
our three man rush (with usually Crichton dropping into covereage)...
… is not prevent – it is our base. We are not good enough to play man. We need to spread our guys out to guard the perimeters (prevent long runs … remember how the fly sweep killed us last year) and to prevent big plays. That simply has to be a higher priority than maximizing a pass rush for the time, especially with two safeties injured.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
theory baloney
if you give any QB in this league that much time he will pick you apart and march down the field. That’s why we are defending the red zone so often.
Absolutely have to have a pass rush!!!!
yeah - but we can't sell out to get it ..
… we are not fast enough in the secondary to recover from a mistake.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
We need do figure something out.
Playing a 4-3 zone defense EVERY play is going to make life MUCH easier on the opposing offense. When you know what the defense is doing, playing offense is soooooo much easier. If we don’t get some variety, we will make Sullivan look like an All American and we will lose.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
Rose Bowl
I think the coaches agree that you need to take it one game at a time. I also think they realize that they can beat any team left on the schedule even though I think it is unlikely we win out. If UW beats ASU and Arizona beats Stanford the Huskies will control their own destiny with five games remaining. Expect more Rose Bowl talk if UW wins this game since Oregon is coming into town next week. That has the possibility of being a very big game in the scheme of things.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 11:17 AM PDT reply actions
UW vs ASU
While it seems like we might have an advantage passing the ball this week, it is critical that our running game give us a chance to control some clock. The ASU D is the best unit on the field this week. We need to wear them down physically in order to try to take that advantage away later in the game. My keys:
1. UW needs an effective running game and clock control – we need to wear down that ASU d-line and take the home crowd out of the equation
2. Jake, again, cannot afford unforced errors – if ASU gets a lead, their D can hold it
3. Let’s not make Nance look like Jim Brown
4. Limit dropped passes and convert third downs
5. Put the game in Sullivan’s hands … do that and we’ll likely see Osweiller before the night is out
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Masoli will be ready to play your boys
He’ll be fine.
Btw, much to the chagrin of the local media in OR, injuries are now always described as “Day to Day” unless the player is done for the year. So don’t read too much into that.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Masoli
I never really trust the Ducks when it comes to accurate injury reports.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
like dixon was fine?
he had a partial tear of his acl initially and when he played his final game didn’t have a brace and completely blew out his knee.
How can you be so sure?
After the Dixon deal it is pretty tough to b sure isn’t it?
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Acutally, Oregon has been pretty up front with Doctor reports and whether a
player is day to day or out. Masoli’s is a bruise on the MCL (not nearly as bad as the ACL, most time you just need rest to recover, not surgery). The bye week came at the right time for him.
We’ll see how the stiffness and mobility come along early next week.
BTW, since we have a bye week and you are our next opponent, I’ll be checking in on you a lot the next two weeks…just a heads up :-)
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
Are you replying to your own UW fan talking about playing people after a bye week…shouldn’t you say, “We’re Scared!!”???
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
No, I think his (humorous) point is our opponents are scared about playing us and schedule their bye weeks to precede their games with us.
Thanks kirkd
I knew Duck fans were a little slow, but come on! I wonder if they can get a refund on their tuition?
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
maybe I should get another duck fan to come over and explain my sarcasm for you two…
(once again that was sarcasm too if you couldn’t tell)
I knew husky fans were slow… hehe
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
Keeping working on your jokes . .
eventually you’ll get the hang of it!
The duck game must be getting close, I’m already fired up and ready for war!
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
Me too, I can't wait...this is going to be a GREAT
game. I think Oregon has the upper hand on talent, but it is NEVER easy playing UW in Seattle in front of 70,000 crazy Dawg fans. You definitely have the second best home field advantage..hehe…wow, I can’t wait!!!! Next week is going to be AWESOME!!!!!
Hi, my name is Matt Daddy and I am a....
HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
How quick we forget.
Husky Stadium with 60,000 people (and a decent team on the field) is louder than Autzen, why does everybody forget so quickly how loud Husky Stadium can get??
Oregon’s offense against UW’s defense REALLY scares me, if Holt doesn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat, it’s going to be a very long night.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
vendetta
it is part of the ongoing keep the Huskies out of the Rose Bowl dating back to the Don James end of era.
clearly, the now released notion that Masoli may not be ready to play after the BYE ...
… is not consistent with what Duck fans were being told 12 days ago when the injury first happened.
It doesn’t matter, IMO. Having Costa in there, who is clearly a more accurate passer if weaker armed, gives O the opportunity to lean more on their playmakers. LMJ looks like an outstanding talent and they have some guys at WR that just need a QB who can get it to them consistently. I actually think they are better with Costa back there, but I’m sure my Duck friends will not agree.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
John, what about your WR's?
I didn’t see much mention of them in your report. I know a couple guys are battling injury and some have had problems with the dropsies and route running. I think with ASU’s tough secondary your WR’s need to be sharp.
Another interesting side note, this is going to be Holt’s first game (outside of Idaho) where his game plan is going to be pretty straight up D. I know ASU’s offense doesn’t scare anyone.
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HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
D’Andre Goodwin has been practicing this week, so he should be back from his nasty concussion vs. Notre Dame. Devin Aguilar returned last week against Arizona after sitting out a game with what I think was an ankle/leg problem, but he did get a ding to the head that kept him out of practice today, so he might be iffy. Other than that the WR group seems relatively healthy.
Drops are certainly still a concern. As a group, they could go from decent to very good in a hurry if they can hang on to the ball more consistently. Depth is pretty good though, with Cody Bruns and Anthony Boyles still yet to see action due to the talent in front of them. Walk-on Tony Chidiac has also impressed at times in practice. It’s a deep group with a lot of talent – they just need to hang on to the ball more consistently, and they can become a real strength for this team in the future.
They seem young and inexperienced...am I right (besides Aguilar)?
That Kearse kid looks impressive (speed and route running) and if he can clean up the drops could be dangerous.
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HUGE FREAKING DUCK FAN!!!!!!... "Hi Matt Daddy"
the surprise of the year is a true freshman - Johnson...
… but Goodwin is a Jr and was in the mix of the top of the Pac 10 in receptions last year. You mentioned Aguilar. Middleton (TE), Kearse and Bruns are sophomores that played last year. Polk is out, so you won’t see him. Beyond those guys, you get into guys like Chidiac (who I think is senior) and Boyles – a redshirt sophomore who was a 4-star recruit but who has had trouble growing up.
With Polk out, the only real burner is Goodwin (Aguilar is pretty fast). The other guys are either big or have sticky hands.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Kavario Middleton
That was an unreal TD catch he made that put us in position to win. I think that’s his breakout play to a great rest of the season.
by doubledeucedawg on Oct 15, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Kavario has the hands and size to be a fantastic pass-catching TE for us. He needs to continue pushing himself to refine his routes and give full effort for 60 minutes, and he still needs a lot of work in the weight room to get stronger and a change in his mentality to embrace the blocking aspects of his job as a TE. He still seems to mainly be a guy that thinks of himself as a large WR.
But he’s got all the talent in the world, and can be one of the very best we’ve had at the UW by the time he’s done.
Jordan Polk is out for three weeks
He has some torn cartilage so he will be out for Oregon. Other than that we seem to be in pretty good shape since both Aguilar and Goodwin are back. We have some depth at WR.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 15, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Holt's D
… I’m not sure what “straight up D” means. If you think UW might go more man2man vs. ASU, you might be right, but I don’t think that we’ll see very much of it. Our D is what it is – there is strength at the LB core, but the secondary lacks size/speed and the D-Line is a work in progress. They need to create a scheme that keeps the LBs roaming and off of blocks so that they can make plays wherever the ball goes. They also need to prevent big plays. This all points to more Cover 2, which has been the strategy all season (even Idaho).
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
I meant not having to load up against the run or protect against a good passer
ASU doesn’t have anything (either rusher or passer) that you have to specifically game plan for. So I’m interested to see how Holt uses the LB’s to create havoc. I wasn’t talking about any formation specificallly, just that ASU doesn’t have a Clauson, Gerhart, Grigsby, et al.
Washington’s schedule has been difficult and Holt every week has had to specifically gameplan for a star on the other side each week. This week, ASU offensive is, well, pretty vanilla…so I’m interested to see how what he does.
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