Puppy Chow
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 7:00 AM PDT
38 comments
It is mid season so the statistics are starting to mean something going into these games. There is an old saying about stats that goes. "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure, so I figure you're a liar." That being said are the teams stats going into this game skewed a bit by strength of schedule?
Just for example according to the Sagarin ratings the Huskies (3-3) are the 31st best team in the country and have played the toughest schedule in the country with a 80.50 rating. ASU (3-2) on the other hand is only ranked 56th by the Sagarin computations. Their schedule strength is rated 64.40 which gives them the 101st strongest schedule in the country through last week.
ASU has feasted on lesser opponents which have inflated their statistics. You can't compare a schedule of LSU (11), USC (4), Idaho (57), Stanford (27), Notre Dame (17) and Arizona (20) with ASU's which features Idaho State (193), Louisiana Monroe (92), Georgia (40), Oregon State (35), and WSU (118).
Arizona State is averaging 29.8 points per game this season. Washington is averaging 26.8. Washington is giving up an average of 28.5 points per game while the Sun Devils are only giving up 15.8 which is second to only USC in the conference.
Arizona State is averaging 138.6 ypg on the ground. The Huskies are averaging averaging 120.8 ypg. The Huskies are giving up an average of 161.3 ypg on the ground. ASU on the other hand is leading the conference by allowing only 49.6 per game.
The Huskies are second in passing offense ringing up 237.2 per game. ASU is not far behind at 214.4. Total offense is a good indicator of where these teams are right now. Washington is averaging 358 and ASU is averaging 353. Another key indicator is passing efficiency UW is rated at 130.1 while the Sun Devils are at 105.7 which puts them only ahead of WSU in the conference.
Washington is second in the conference for first downs with 120. ASU only has 97. A key stat is third down conversions. UW leads the conference at 53.3 %. ASU is converting at only 30.6%.
ASU coughed up the ball six times against WSU. Despite that they still lead the Pac 10 with a plus seven turnover ratio. Washington is at plus three which is good for third in the conference.
There is a wide gap in total defense. ASU leads the league by limiting teams to only 221 ypg. The Huskies are near the bottom giving up 373. Only WSU has given up more total yards than Washington in the conference this season.
ASU is the most penalized team in the conference this season living up to the Dennis Erickson tradition giving up an average of 83 yards per game in penalty yardage. Washington hasn't been perfect but holds in an edge in only giving up 59.
At first glance while looking at the stats you would assume that ASU can shut down the Husky running game. An even closer look shows that against Georgia they held the Bulldogs to only 92 rushing yards but gave up 242 through the air. The key for Georgia was jumping out to a 14-0 lead before the rains turned the field into a quagmire.
Against Oregon State they held the vaunted OSU rushing attack to only 79 yards. They actually outgained the Beavers 406 to 295 and still lost the game 28-17. The Beavers got out to an early 21-3 lead which kept the Devils on their heals the rest of the game. The Devils don't play well coming from behind.
What this means is Washington will probably not generate much on the ground against the Sun Devils on Saturday. This is another game that the Huskies will depend on Jake Locker to deliver the bulk of the offense. ASU is susceptible through the air if the offensive line can give Locker enough time to throw. They are also susceptible to over running Jake on the blitz which can lead to some serious yards when he decides to tuck it under his arm.
If recent history is any guide the Huskies need to take the lead early in this one because ASU has the ability to control the clock. Washington needs to strike early and put the Devils on their heals. That has been the recipe for success in the two losses they have suffered this season. This is the game where Jake needs to start hitting his targets long and in stride. The Devils can give up the big one's.
Another thing to take a close look at is the turnover ratio. Plus seven is really amazing when you turned the ball over six times last week to WSU. They of course evened that up a bit by feasting on WSU mistakes. Washington needs to force turnovers in this game. The Devils are sloppy on offense despite the high numbers. Washington needs to take advantage of that.
California Deja Vu
What is going on down at Cal?
We all assume that Cal isn't as bad as its 42-3 and 30-3 losses to Oregon and USC seem to indicate.The Bears were supposedly primed for the top ten this season and seemed to have put together most of the pieces needed to finally overtake USC for the Pac 10 crown. Two ugly games against Oregon and USC have moved the Bears from the penthouse to the outhouse. This is starting to a smell a lot like 2007 when the Bears seemed headed for a title only to tank the second half of the season.
Golden Bear fans are openly questioning Jeff Tedford's play calling. They wonder why he is abandoning the running game so early. One time Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best only had 14 carries against the Trojans with only 8 coming in the first half when the Bears were still very much in the game.
Looking back two of Best's first four carries against the Trojans went for good gains (8 and 6 yards) while the others netted minus-3 yards and no gain. Best rushed for 3 yards on his fifth carry of the game, and that's when it looked liked the Bears threw in the towel as far as the running game was concerned.
Opposing defenses are challenging Cal to beat them through the air by putting eight in the box. Cal which has a history of being able to air out with the best of them has responded poorly with Kevin Riley at QB. I saw Cal play early this season a couple of times and was wowed by Best, but Kevin Riley seemed wooden and mechanical to me. Riley ended up completing just 15 of 40 passes for 199 yards against USC and has connected on just 38 percent of his throws during the past two games.
Cal can still salvage this season starting with a win on the road against UCLA this week. It won't be an easy task. While the Bruin offense is struggling the defense is one of the better units in the Pac 10. Neuheisel and his staff have watched plenty of film and they are going to stack the box until Cal can prove they can burn them through the air. Cal's problems are not exclusively isolated to the offense either. The Bear defense has given up 72 points over the last two seeks and they certainly didn't look like world beaters back in Minnesota. The secondary is suspect and UCLA has to figure out a way to exploit it even if they are having QB problems of their own.
You have to figure a bye week is a good thing for team that has been bludgeoned two weeks in a row. The Bears have made the most of it by not taking any time off. Tedford has continued to look for the combinations he needs to turn the season around. One suggestion Jeff...take the time to establish the run this week. Don't give up on it early if you fall behind. Jahvid Best is your best bet to get this thing turned around. A great running back gets better as the game goes on. Give Best the carries to develop that type of game breaking rythmn. If you don't you are going to be in an 0-3 hole you will never climb out of which means Deja Vu 2007.
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I know this is off subject but does anyone have any news regarding recruiting? And /or any insight on how our backup QBs look – what players may not be coming back next year? Thanks
by lorenzothedog on Oct 14, 2009 7:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Recruiting/QB's/Attrition
We do a recruiting review once a month and report on whatever is current as it happens. If you go back into the archives of the site you should be able to find plenty of info to bring you up to speed. Dawgman.com is also a great source for recruiting news since they actually interview the recruits. ESPN also has some free recruting news you can use written by Greg Biggins.
Washington currently has 18 recruits who have verbaled and are very close on a couple of JC guys pending transcript approval. Look for the Huskies to take up to 30 players this season. One HS player already has committed to coming in early which means he would count against the last class. Another one blew out a knee so he is a grey shirt candidate which means he could defer enrollment to winter quarter.
Recruiting news is slower this time of year because the HS players are focusing on their current seasons. Most however take trips during their bye weeks. UW for example had four recruits on campus last weekend. When UW has a bye after the Oregon game expect the coaches to hit the planes again to watch games and actively chase recruits in California and Hawaii.
Typically if a kid hasn’t verbaled yet he is waiting to take the rest of his trips and that can stretch into January. The top recruits in the country tend to wait till the very end to announce their decisions. Washington usually has their biggest recruting weekends planned for late December and early January. Typically a coach like Sark will have most of his class recruited by Christmas.
UW only has two backup scholarship QB’s on the roster this year, Ronnie Fouch, and Keith Price. Price is redshirting to preserve a year of eligibilty. Fouch has only seen action on special teams. Observers say Fouch has had the same quantum leap in proficiency that Locker has had. Fouch of course isn’t ever going to be at the same level overall as Locker because they are two very different QB’s. Price came in raw and talented. He is comparable to a Dennis Dixon who came close to winning a Heisman at Oregon a few years ago. This has been a learning year for Price. The little things like footwork, release, reads, arm level…etc…are what the coaches are currently concentrating on with him.
Locker right now has a 50/50 chance of returning next season. If he does not return Price and Fouch will fight it out this spring for the job. Fouch has the edge in expereince while Price has an edge in overall talent and mobility. Don’t forget about Nick Montana who arrives this fall. Most think he needs another year in the weight room but he just might get that at home before he arrives. He happens to live with one of the better QB coaches on the planet.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Attrition
I hate to speculate on who or who not will be with the team next fall. To achieve the goal of bringing in approximately 30 new players around 6-8 current underclassmen are going to have to move on.
You can scan the roster and figure that the kids who aren’t getting playing time are good candidates to move on. That isn’t the way it always works either. Sometimes you lose kids you don’t want to lose because of personal problems injuries, and grades.
Just for example Craig Noble left the squad because of a congenital heart condition. Scott Fancher is a kid who the team had pegged to be in the rotation or even start at tackle. He has had three surgeries to the same leg since last spring. Jason Wells who will play for the first time in two years this week is an example of how bad things can happen to good players.
In the end the numbers always seem to work out by fall. Washington was able to giv eon eyear scholarships to 4-5 walkons this season because they simply had the spots open once all the cards were on the table. Rarely do you ever start the season with the full 85.
I hope this helps you Lorenzo.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cal/UCLA
another game where I really don’t care who wins. As long as we beat ASU, the loser of ca/la merely gets pushed further out of the picture. I hope we don’t make Sullivan look like an all american like we have several other players in the past. I agree with you, Sullivan is pedestrian at best, but we need to knock them to the ground early and then stick the bayonet and eviscerate them. I hope thekids learned the UA example, don’t let a comparable team stay close, it might come back to bite you in your anatomy.a;
by prrbrr on Oct 14, 2009 8:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well...
It really doesn’t matter who wins the Cal/UCLA game. If Cal loses they are definitely out of the race with three conference losses. If UCLA loses they fall to 1-2 which is a tough place to be in. I am interested in this game for a couple of reasons. I want to see if UCLA is getting better on defense and I want to see if Cal is ready for a free fall. Basically I want to see if we have what it takes to beat both these teams….I have them both circled as wins by the way.
I don’t know if Sullivan is pedestrian…he lit up Oregon State for over 300 yards. I do know that he isn’t mobile and playes behind a questionable offensive line. We need to get after him and force mistakes. I have a feeling that turnovers are going to be a big part of this game.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had them both circled as wins too and I AM interested in the game just
don’t care who wins. It will be interesting to see if Cal loses, I think they might have already thrown in the towel and might play like last years dawgs when we get them, payback would be sweet for that 48-7 beating administered last year, 45-0 in 3rd qtr with no mercy shown by Tedford in the late stages of game. Would be great to leave C Polk in to get 300 yards as payback.
by prrbrr on Oct 14, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember when Ty actually beat Cal with Bonnell at QB
Same sort of scenario back in 2007.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Double Deference
I am right that when the huskies beat cal in 07 that the golden bears kicked off at th start of the game and the start of the 3rd quarter?
by AllEyezOnMe on Oct 14, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that...
…very weird.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was because the player did not defer, he chose to kick...
…thus UW got the choice to start the second half.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Oct 15, 2009 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff Tedford
John B, not trying to start a rumor, but is Jeff Tedford on the Coaches Hot Seat. Are there any type of rumblings of him being let go?
by bigdawgdaddy999 on Oct 14, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nope
Tedford is 100% responsible for Cal being at this level. The administration knows that and supports that. Winning at Cal isn’t an easy thing to accomplish. What Tedford has done is nothing short of miraculous.
The higher the expectations the higher the dissapointment when you don’t achieve them…that is what is going on at Cal right now.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed 100%.
They really weren’t on the nationally relevant landscape prior to Tedford, and now they’re the ND of the west. High early season ranking, some sort of breakdown and a drop to the lower top 25, with the label of underachievers.
However, I don’t think they underachieve (minus the freefall mentioned above), I’m just saying there are some similarities there.
One thing I would mention though, that could put Tedford in lower standing than we at first realize, they have a deplorable graduation rate. This could prove to be an issue…
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Oct 14, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like Your Pic...
…brings back memories of my old man. He used to drink Oly.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
I grew up in Oly, now I live in Denver…. there’s a large liquor store here called Total Beverage, you can get a 1/2 rack of Oly Cans for 8 bucks. Although I’m a beer snob, there is something to be said now and then for decent cheap beer (tastes better than PBR), and of course reminds me of home…
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Oct 14, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And my Old Man.....
used to be the GM for Oly’s distributorship in Seattle. Loved “working” in the warehouse on Saturday mornings, before going to Husky Stadium in the Fall afternoons.
by Go Viks! on Oct 14, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahhh... Memories...
I did the same with my step-dad, going to the tavern with him, playing video games as he did inventory and checked the books on saturday mornings.
Anyone from Olympia? Our tavern was Lucky’s Tavern and Eatery on Pacific. Family sold it around 2000, it’s been through nearly 10 owners since then and isn’t even a tav anymore.
Mancrushed. Jake Locker for Heisman 2010.
by whiskey chainsaw on Oct 15, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%
I had lunch yesterday with a former Cal player and Alum (yes I do repent for fraternizing with the enemy). I asked this same question of him. His response was exactly what John said, the administration know that it JT who got them to this level. He said though there are some rumblings from the alum, that it might be time to get someone else to take them to the next level. He felt that probably not this year, but if Cal continues their free fall, JT would most assuredly be on the hot seat to get it done next year.
PS: I have coffee every Friday morning with two USC and three Idaho grads; Every week the Vandals make sure it is known now that they scored 10 more points against the Huskies than USC did. Can’t wait till we take it to the Cougs.
by UnderCoverDawg on Oct 14, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fire Tedford?
I have no problem with that, would Pete Carrol be next?
We beat Cal something like 25 years straight before Tedford, any talk ot firing him is crazi. He was my other choice before we hired the genus from Notre Dame.
by dawgdude on Oct 14, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cal is delusional if they think they’re going to get a better coach than Tedford. The chances of them striking gold like that twice in a row are very, very low. They should feel lucky they’ve held on to him as long as they have with their stadium renovation still not in progress.
That’s not to say that Cal can’t remain a competitive team in the Pac-10 – as long as the administration desires it, they can be a good program, and right now they appear to desire it. But what if that changes and they make it harder for recruits to get in to school there? What if their facilities improvements keep getting delayed and/or they neglect what they have?
I can empathize with Cal fans that are frustrated that the program seems to have plateaued. But they have to ask themselves – are they willing to risk falling back to pre-Tedford success levels in the pursuit of trying to get better?
by kirkd on Oct 14, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They aren't the only school that needs that talk.
I think Oregon is going to learn that lesson the hard way. In the long run, Chip Kelly will not have the success that Bellotti had, but the fans wanted more, when they should have enjoyed the success they had. There are quite a few schools out there that should be happy with what they have, instead of risking it all on the possibility that the next coach might be better.
"Legends are made on the shores of Lake Washington"
"BOW DOWN TO WASHINGTON"
by Lear Pilot on Oct 14, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bingo! Lear...
…that’s exactly what I was thinking. I know we talked about this before but be careful what you wish for. You may end up worse off. Coaches like Don James don’t come around very often. I’m not going to put Belloti into that comparison but for Oregon I think he was their “Don James”.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which...
with their stadium renovation still not in progress.
Any idea when we might be looking at our own renovation?
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Next step is going back to the State Legislature to again ask them to allow the existing tourist taxes collected in King County that are paying for Safeco & Qwest Fields to be extended to help pay for part of the Husky Stadium renovation, or at least allow King County residents the chance to vote on this proposal themselves. That tax is from a special taxing authority created by the State Legislature, so they’re the ones that have to authorize extending the tax or hand off responsibility for extending it to County voters.
I would hope that Woodward & Emmert have already been laying groundwork via lobbying key legislators, and I would hope that they’ve also been laying groundwork for the private donation portion of the renovation bill. Thus far, they’ve make no public revelations of any such fund-raising efforts, though I would suspect they’ve done some inquiries already with the biggest potential donors.
by kirkd on Oct 14, 2009 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the primary obstacle to that happening is frank chopp.
almost all the comiittee chairs including kelli linville (appropriations) is for this but frank has a hard on against that tax money going to renovations.
by PandG on Oct 15, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In general, I can sympathize with Chopp’s position. But in this case, I feel like there is some legitimate connection between the kind of taxes being collected and what they’d be used to fund.
Emmert & Woodward will need to have done their homework and come up with a better PR plan to sell this idea and make it harder for Chopp to oppose it. Hopefully they’ve also made it clear to WSU that turning a blind eye and even encouraging their fans to oppose this idea will hurt them down the road.
by kirkd on Oct 15, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
totally agree. the majority of the chairs in the house support the letting king county decide what to do. in the house chopp is the obstacle.
in the senate there are different problems and it was a breakdown within the democratic caucus. once the lobbying occurred in e. wa. the support waned there and senator murray here lost his coalition.
this is why he threatened to introduce a bill saying that no teaching institution in wa. state ( udub and wsu) can use state funds for athletics. if that were to pass wsu will be in the big sky conference.
that would not be in the best interest of either school and it seems relations are strained on this issue at multiple levels.
so you know does the tyees have a legislative keyperson?
who does the university use, other than dan evans?
by PandG on Oct 16, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you know does the tyees have a legislative keyperson?
who does the university use, other than dan evans?
No idea actually – I’m not that well connected :)
by kirkd on Oct 16, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Evans is the point man
Dan Evans is the point man on the project in the legislature. He knows everyone and his job has been building a coalition of sorts to support the project.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 16, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
JC QB?
Any chance we might be looking at a guy to come in and add some depth? If Locker leaves we need to have another QB in the mix.
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 10:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There haven’t been any public rumblings about going after a JC QB. And typically stud JC QB’s are committed at this point in the season.
That said, if Jake tells Sark he’s seriously considering leaving, I would think that Sark would scour the JC circuit to see if there’s a guy out there he thinks could help. But unless that kid is someone that can legitimately compete with Fouch & Price, I doubt Sark will sign one – instead, he’ll let Fouch & Price battle for the job with Montana there in case of disaster, and Bean there for practice reps.
by kirkd on Oct 14, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Robinson/Will Shamburger
How are those two kids doing? Aren’t they both coming off of surgery?
Washington Husky Football-Undefeated 1991 National Champions 12-0!
by dawgfan22 on Oct 14, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Both are going through rehab after surgery
they will be able to play in the spring.
by John Berkowitz on Oct 14, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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