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Weis and Willingham battle in Husky Stadium

Going into 2008 this was going to be the most touted game of the season for two teams that had a good chance of being under .500 at the end of the season. The hype of course was that you had the ex Notre Dame coach going up against the current Notre Dame coach and both were on the hot seat after poor finishes last season.

Washington was expected to struggle in their first three games against Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma and they did starting the season 0-3. Disaster struck after that first bye week when Husky QB Jake Locker injured his thumb and was shelved for the rest of the season. The Huskies have been in a free fall ever since battling injuries and inexperience while falling to 0-6.

Notre Dame struggled in its first game out of the chute just getting by hapless San Diego State 21-13 at home. The next week they came out and smashed a struggling Michigan team 35-17 and everyone was declaring the Irish back even though the Wolverines are having one of their worst seasons in decades. A solid 38-21 win over Purdue followed. The Irish held on to beat Stanford the following week 28-21. They then lost on the road to #22 North Carolina 29-24.

Weis has the Irish in good shape to go bowling this post season. Remaining games on the schedule include Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Navy, Syracuse, and USC. The Irish will likely lose to Pitt, BC, and USC. You can pencil in victories over UW, Syracuse, and most likely Navy which would give the Irish a respectable 7-5 record and a bowl bid.

The knock on Weis is that he doesn't beat anyone he isn't supposed to beat. Where are the signature victories? The win over Michigan looks good on paper but that was soon erased by the reality of how horrible the Wolverines are this season. The only rated team the Irish have played this season beat them. The Irish may be 4-2 as they head in to Seattle but they are far from being a top twenty five football team.

To beat the Irish you need to put pressure on Clausen and stop one of the nations best passing attacks. UW has seen better passing attacks this year but hasn't been able to stop anyone yet. Last weeks game against Oregon State showed some improvement but the Huskies are still very much a work in progress going into this one.

The Irish running game isn't really a threat so if you "Tee" off on Clausen you can keep these guys under control. The problem for Washington is they haven't been able to "Tee" off on anyone this year. Opponents have completed 116 of 160 passes against the Huskies this year with only two interceptions. To make matters worse the Huskies have only three sacks this season. All were against Arizona by Daniel Teo Nesheim. UW is going to have to do a much better job providing pressure if they are going to beat the Irish.

How good are the Irish? Notre Dame is a team that will struggle to finish over .500 this season. Like the Huskies they have a bunch of youth on the roster which is continuing to develop each week. The key for the Irish in this one is confidence. With four wins under their belt they feel much better about themselves than the Huskies do.

Washington has a chance to beat Notre Dame at home. The Irish are not as good as Arizona, and Oregon State. We do know that they are better than Stanford who beat the Huskies three games ago. The Vegas line has Notre Dame as a 12 point favorite and I think that is pretty accurate going into this game.

For Washington to win they need to start better in the first half and not turn the ball over. Turnovers have been killing this team ever since Locker was hurt. If the Huskies can keep their hands on the ball and give Ronnie Fouch a little time an upset is possible.

Another key for Washington is if they will be ready to play emotionally this week after starting the season 0-6. Obviously the coaching staff is beginning to lose the confidence of most of the players but this is Notre Dame and I am sure the team will be up for this one.

Finally Washington needs to put pressure on Clausen so he doesn't pick the defensive backfield apart. If UW can keep his completion ration at around 50% or lower they have a chance to come away with a victory.

Bulletin Board Material

Fat Charlie isn't one of the sharpest knives in the drawer when it comes to keeping his mouth shut at the appropriate times.

Willingham and Weis are not on friendly terms. Upon arriving at South Bend Weis took a number of pot shots at Willingham and continued to do it during last years horrible 3-9 season.

When asked if he ever asked former Irish coaches including Tyrone Willingham and Bob Davie for advice he said this:

"When I call people up, I usually like to talk to the guys who left here with a good taste in their mouth," Weis said on a conference call with reporters. "When guys leave here before they're ready to leave, they're not the people that would be the best for me to talk to."

"I don't want them to feel they have to say something, and I really don't want to ask them," he said of his immediate predecessors. "When I have a question to ask somebody who's been in that boat, I call Ara or Lou because they were here over a decade, and I just feel those are the guys that can kind of guide me the best.

"I feel bad for the other people, but the bottom line is, when people leave before they want to leave, it's never a good conversation."

Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times has an interesting take directly from the mouths of those who cover the Irish concerning Willingham's performance at UW as being vindication for Notre Dame firing Willingham with two years left on his contract.

"At some points, it's gotten to be too much," said Lou Somogyi, editor of the Notre Dame fan magazine, Blue and Gold Illustrated. "It's almost gotten to where all the maladies of Notre Dame were blamed on Tyrone the last couple of years. Not saying he's not culpable, but at times it's like he was even responsible for Original Sin."

Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis was asked if he feels any sympathy for Tyrone Willingham, coach of the 0-6 Washington Huskies.

 "Was anyone asking that question last year?"

Notre Dame used to be my second favorite team behind the Huskies. I grew up watching Lindsey Nelson rebroadcast the games on Sunday mornings. We have all watched the Knute Rockne movie and have seen Rudy. It is tough not to admire the Irish tradition even if you are not a fan.

Since Willingham was fired I haven't been a Notre Dame fan. I still feel Tyrone was jobbed at ND regardless of his performance at UW. I think Weis has a big mouth and is a poor representative of what Notre Dame is really about. He doesn't have enough class to be walking those hallowed sidelines in my humble opinion.

Weis hasn't proven anything at Notre Dame other than he can win with Willingham's players. He fell flat on his face his during his third season and this season has been saved by a relatively easy schedule. When you struggle to beat San Diego State in your opener at home you are not impressing me.

This is a bigger game than most people think. This is Willinghams chance to stick it to Notre Dame and Charlie Weis. A win over the Irish on Saturday won't salvage UW's season or Willingham's coaching career at UW, but it will give an extremely young team who hasn't given up some confidence going into the second half of the season. 

For Notre Dame a loss to Washington could be a disaster that will possibly cost Notre Dame a bowl bid at the end of the season. Two straight years without a bowl game could mean the end of Charlie Weis at Notre Dame even though he is obviously building well for the future.

Whatever happens on Saturday you can safely bet on one thing. Irish football coaches of the future will not be calling Charlie Weis for advice on how to succeed at Notre Dame either.

 

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Weis

Never been a big fan of Weis, might just be the stench of Notre Dame though.

On saturday you can also safely bet on Notre Dame covering the spread!

P.S. – Where is Minny C. lately?

"Bow Down to Washington"
"Kick the tires and light the fires!"

by Lear Pilot on Oct 22, 2008 12:48 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Minny

Minny (aka Ruth, or a Ruth neophyte) was given a long time out.

by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2008 4:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

John

you didnt ban Minny C did you??

by bigdave967 on Oct 23, 2008 6:31 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is that what this means?

bq.

SAVE MINNY C

Different opinions have been BANNED from JBs blog. Only you can SAVE MINNY C. Oh, and don’t start forest fires. While you are at it, help take a bite out of crime.

Oh, and SAVE MINNY C!

by Minny C 2 on Oct 20, 2008 9:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions 0 recs

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 23, 2008 6:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You lost me...

its not hard to do though…

by bigdave967 on Oct 23, 2008 8:14 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sneaky...

i was wondering how we got two Statistician’s in one blog! Touche Minny C…or should i say Gekko Mojo…

by bigdave967 on Oct 23, 2008 10:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Snostrebla

your not Minny C too are you? i am so lost now. Thanks a lot! I am done with this, i cant take it!

by bigdave967 on Oct 23, 2008 10:48 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lol!

Nope, I’m not Minny, Geko or Ruth. (Ruth is the owner of the Realdawg website). There is a history between the Dawgman staff and Ruth. I don’t know enough about it to comment. I don’t hang out at Realdawg but go by Freakdawg on Dawgman.

by Snostrebla on Oct 23, 2008 3:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who is Ruth?

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 23, 2008 6:48 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keys to the ND-Washington Game

Here’s a few things that will be vital for both squads for Saturday’s matchup.

by weisgipper on Oct 22, 2008 1:37 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Take it easy, Francis

I think it’s wrong to accuse ND of ‘jobbing’ Willingham. He had a contract, and it was honored, even when it was clear he was no longer wanted as the head coach. If you dig a little more deeply than the pundits at ESPN do, you’ll realize that Ty was not the great recruiter guys like Mandel and May would have you believe. He did bring in some real players that contributed in ’06, just as Ty has done with Locker and a few others, but he completely failed to recruit to need and left gaping holes in the roster, in our case, on the offensive and defensive lines – failings that have directly contributed to our problems since his departure.

As you are finding out, while Ty may be a stand up guy, and he certainly seems to have many defenders, he is not a great head coach. With the benefit of hindsight, go back and re-read some of Mandel’s columns about Ty and Notre Dame from 04/05. I wouldn’t blame you for hating us if you believed that stuff then, but with the benefit of hindsight, you may have a different take now.

 Here’s hoping you can find your way back to being a fan of our program. After all, in the immortal words of Sergeant Hartman:

“Because I am hard you will not like me. But the more you hate me, the more you will learn. I am hard but I am fair. There is no racial bigotry here. I do not look down on niggers, kikes, wops or greasers. Here you are all equally worthless. And my orders are to weed out all non-hackers who do not pack the gear to serve in my beloved Corps.”

Ty, god bless him, does not pack the gear to serve as head coach of my beloved Irish. Husky Nation, I imagine, doesn’t feel they deserve any less.

by NDfn on Oct 22, 2008 1:58 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good Post

I know the ND fans will love seeing Ty fall (and so will we for that matter) however the situations are far different. Ty had a winning record there, had gotten a huge turnaround in his first year there and was treated differently than other ND coaches had been treated in terms of the “five year” rule that seemed to be the norm in that institution. I don’t fault them for making the move that they deemed best for their University (on the contrary, they should get kudos), but they still deserve the scrutiny they have gotten. It’s fair.

Ty at UW has been a bust. He’s done some good things in terms of improving character and stabilizing aspects of the program. But coaches get paid to win games and he has failed to show the kind of strategic thinking in terms of managing rosters, managing systems and hiring staff that translates into W’s. He’s also been given the time that he was promised and didn’t deliver. This is not the same as the situation at ND.

All of that said, I agree that UW has a chance in this game and, in fact, I expect them to come close to if not outright win. I think that this is a 3-win team, not a 1-win team. ND is one of the 3 worst opponents that they will see all year … so I’m going on record as saying that we will win an ugly one. You can roast me after the game.

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 22, 2008 2:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Put down the sauce Mojo

ND is one of the better passing teams in the county, while UW is the worst pass defense in the nation, period!

Whatever koolaid you are drinking, put it down, because someone has spiked it with delusional thoughts.

by weisgipper on Oct 22, 2008 3:16 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Special to the Notre Dame faithful

We all know we made a mistake hiring Willingham. The results have been on the scoreboard each week ever since he was hired.

At least once a week I need to write or fantasize about the possibility of Washington winnning a football game.

Mo matter how much I would like UW to beat Notre Dame the reality is that Washington will probably lose by three touchdowns. Like weisgipper said the meeting of one of the better passing teams in the country and one of the worst overall defense is not a formula for Washington success.

by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2008 3:41 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weisgipper ...

… I’m sure is a balanced, non-biased commentator. I can see that by his moniker and his logo.

I have no reason not to predict a Husky victory this week. The reason? … the math works in my favor. Follow my logic – here are the BCS teams that have won zero games since 2002:

Duke

Here are the BCS teams that have won just one game in a season in the past five years:

Duke (twice)
Minn
Syracuse
UW (ouch)
Stanford

Incidentally, no BCS conference has had two teams that both fail to win more than one game in the same season as far back as I looked.

If we agree that WSU is the one-win team in our division, than the Huskies would have to defy a near statistical certainty in order to finish the season with just one win (over WSU). The odds are similar to winning a national Lotto – literally, millions to one. Consider, there are 595 “teams” that have played in the last 5 years (including BCS and non BCS). Less than 3% of them failed to win 2 games in a season. That means that less than 4 teams per year will finish with less than 2 wins… and two in the same division NEVER do.

If the Cougs are one of the less than 2-win teams… are the Huskies one of the other three in 2008? Like I said, it is a near impossibility.

So, the odds of the Huskies winning at least two are MUCH higher than the odds of them not winning two. Its not even close, in fact. If one of those wins is the Cougs, than who would the second be? The best chance, in my estimation is ND. It’s a home game, there is still some players who are in to it, ND has to travel a few time zones, and ND is the least developed of our remaining (non WSU foes).

Thus, I predict a Huskies victory on Saturday and am near certain that this team will luck its way into at least two wins this season. It has nothing to do with Coaching, with Talent or with Experience … its all in the math.

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 22, 2008 5:52 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow, get ready to eat crow!

I know its a really bad season, but are we that desperate to twist numbers so far, and try and convince yourself the Huskies have a chance?
 
Here’s the only two numbers that matter ND 17th in the nation passing, UW 118th against the pass. If I were the UW defensive record book, I’d be nervous. Saturday Clausen will look like a Heisman candidate.

And yes this is a 1-11 team, that is if we don’t blow the apple cup.

"Bow Down to Washington"
"Kick the tires and light the fires!"

by Lear Pilot on Oct 22, 2008 9:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Upset

Beating Notre Dame on Saturday isn’t exactly out of the realm of possibility.

by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2008 10:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

could be,

but the “17th in the natino passing” is a far less meaningful number than the ones that I presented. My numbers are about all teams over five seasons. Your number is about one team against a small sample of other teams. We’ll see.

I can’t really lose. If the Dawgs win I look genius. If they lose, I look like a hopeless optimist. There are worst things one could be.

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 23, 2008 5:02 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Glad to see we are holding are agreement not to agree!

No, you have nothing to lose, you just look really foolish.

JB – I know we play the games because anything could happen, but geesh what has this team show us to believe they can beat anybody? The more I watch them, the more concerned I get about the apple cup. How embarrasing would it be to lose to WSU this year!

"Bow Down to Washington"
"Kick the tires and light the fires!"

by Lear Pilot on Oct 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I appreciate (and share) your optimism

But your “math” made me cringe. Just because a team loses a lot doesn’t make it “due” for wins in order to balance out a pre-season projection. You can look at the odds of winning plus-or-minus two games at the beginning of the year, and it’s a valid exercise. But the further we get into the season, the less it holds true.

If you had to guess the outcome of ten coin flips, you’d smartly guess 5 heads and 5 tails. But if the first three flips came out tails, you’d be a fool to start betting heavily on heads just because they’re due to come out even at the end. At that point, they aren’t; each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance, regardless of what happened prior.

If the Huskies have exactly one win going into the Cal game, I hope you wouldn’t bet the farm because it’s a “near impossibility” that they won’t win the two games they were supposed to win, and with only one game left, it must be this one!

The more Washington and Washington State keep losing, the more likely it is that both teams finish with less than two wins, regardless of how farfetched that scenario may have seemed coming into the season.

End of statistics talk; go Dawgs!

by busplunger on Oct 23, 2008 8:56 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

right.

but if you flip that coin 1000 times, the probability that heads only comes up 30 times is very remote. This is roughly the same as the probability of UW winning less than two games in a season as considered at the beginning of the season.

Of course, you are right about the Cal example. the probability of UW winning two games in this season diminishes with every loss. However, if UW and WSU were to complete the season with only one win each, it would be a most unprecedented accomplishment.

"Greed is Good."
So is Rudy.

by Gekko Mojo on Oct 23, 2008 8:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can definitely understand why Weis would have zero sympathy fo Ty

The Willingham lovers in the media, and elsewhere, were disgusting last season the way they used the poor performance of Notre Dame as some sort of justification of their misguided slams against ND and Weis. Ty himself isn’t entirely blameless in this regard as he fanned the flames with his Saunders interview.

Those people can’t have it both ways. They want to credit Willingham for the first two years, but it was all Weis last year, and now it’s Willingham’s players again? Sorry, the whole “he won with _______’s players” is total garbage. If people actually believed that then where’s someone pointing out how horrible Stanford was as soon as Willingham left? Those were his players, right? Or how about Lambo only going 7-4 with DJ’s players, yet we’re supposed to give him credit for 2000 because he recruited (many of) those players?

Ty didn’t get a raw deal at ND. He was thoroughly mediocre after the hot start in 2002 and trending that way for the foreseeable future. And his failure here is by no means vindication for ND, they didn’t need anything of the sort to begin with. Just because people have crafted this image of Willingham that the media so loves buying into doesn’t mean ND has to apologize for their gullibility.

by discovolante on Oct 22, 2008 7:46 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, I definitely agree about Weis's class and suitability for Notre Dame

He’s certainly no Holtz or Parseghian. I just think people are a little too quick to belittle him and use his perceived favored status as license to insult him personally.

by discovolante on Oct 22, 2008 8:42 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weis

I think Weis deserves what he gets because he talks before he thinks.

The things that come out of his mouth on a weekly basis are amazing.

by John Berkowitz on Oct 22, 2008 9:13 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great Ty quotes

"I’ve done this before, … But it’s meaningful because there will be many others that will make something of it."

"those things that we’ve done well. Let them see what we can do and what we have done successful and then give them cures for what we have done incorrectly. … if we can show those things to our players they can keep their spirits up and see that we can do some things and then it’s up to both of us to execute better. And when I say execute better, from our standpoint that is to continue to put them in better positions for them to continue to have success, and for them to follow through and execute.’’

"I don’t make any excuses. I never feel sorry for Tyrone Willingham. But the truth of the matter is, everything is not microwave popcorn."

by NDfn on Oct 23, 2008 10:38 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Classic NDfn

Everything isn’t microwave popcorn and it is time our young men learned that.

by John Berkowitz on Oct 23, 2008 12:18 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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